IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eut/journl/v20y2016i4p551.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Empirical Relationship between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation (Case Study: Selected Asian Economies)

Author

Listed:
  • Hossein-Ali Fakher

    (Department of Environmental Economics, Faculty of Environment and Energy, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.)

Abstract

The relationship between public sector deficits and inflation is one of the important and controversial issues in the academic literature as well as in economic policy field. On the other hand, a major objective of macroeconomic policies is to foster economic growth and to keep inflation on a low level. So keeping the price stability plays an important role in determining the growth rate of output. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of budget deficit, broad money supply, real GDP, import price index, interest rate and exchange rate on inflation (price deflator) in selected Asian economics, namely China, Japan, Korea, India, Taiwan, and Singapore in the period of 1993-2013. By applying the Pooled Mean Group estimation-based error correction model and the panel differenced (General Method of Moment) Arellano-Bond estimator, the study finds out budget deficit, real GDP and exchange rate are statistically significant determinants of inflation in both methods of estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein-Ali Fakher, 2016. "The Empirical Relationship between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation (Case Study: Selected Asian Economies)," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(4), pages 551-579, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:20:y:2016:i:4:p:551
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://80.66.179.253/eut/journl/20164-6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2008. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Consumption Prices: What Has Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 139-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    5. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?," Working Papers 0510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    8. Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April.
    9. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    10. Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.
    11. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
    12. Sohrab Abizadeh & Mahmood Yousefi, 1998. "Deficits and inflation: an open economy model of the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1307-1316.
    13. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    15. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Monetary policy transmission in an emerging market setting," Working Papers 11/78, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    16. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 1997. "Are budget deficits inflationary? A cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 493-496.
    17. Ahking, Francis W. & Miller, Stephen M., 1985. "The relationship between government deficits, money growthm and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 447-467.
    18. Christophe Hurlin, 2004. "Testing Granger causality in Heterogeneous panel data models with fixed coefficients," Post-Print halshs-00257395, HAL.
    19. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    20. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2009. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 525-539, December.
    21. Hossain, Akhand Akhtar, 2010. "Monetary targeting for price stability in Bangladesh: How stable is its money demand function and the linkage between money supply growth and inflation?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 564-578, December.
    22. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
    24. Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mr. Peter Isard, 2003. "Some Implications for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Working Papers 2003/025, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Macroeconomic effects of budget deficits: further international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 190-210, April.
    26. Honohan, Patrick & Shi, Anging, 2001. "Deposit dollarization and the financial sector in emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2748, The World Bank.
    27. Koffie Ben Nassar, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar," IMF Working Papers 2005/236, International Monetary Fund.
    28. repec:zbw:bofitp:2000_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Jonathan Temple, 2000. "Inflation and Growth: Stories Short and Tall," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 395-426, September.
    30. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    31. Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 1998. "The Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study," IMF Working Papers 1998/023, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 2002/197, International Monetary Fund.
    33. De Haan, Jakob & Zelhorst, Dick, 1990. "The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 455-469, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sriyana, Jaka, 2018. "Inflationary effects of fiscal and monetary policies in Indonesia," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 14(3), June.
    2. Om Raj Katoch, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between expenditure on power and state finances: an empirical study in Jammu and Kashmir, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 26397-26413, October.
    3. Jaka Sriyana & Jiyao Joanna Ge, 2019. "Asymmetric responses of fiscal policy to the inflation rate in Indonesia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1701-1713.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2020. "Application of Bootstrap Simulation and Asymmetric Causal Approach to Fiscal Deficit-Inflation Nexus," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(2), pages 123-140, May.
    2. Maissa Elmrabet & Boulila Ghazi, 2018. "Causality deficit-inflation : wavelet transform," Working Papers hal-01941464, HAL.
    3. Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.
    4. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    5. Alpaslan, Baris & Demirel, Baki, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect on Prices and Inflation Targeting: A Comparison of Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 53726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lamia Bazzaoui & Jun Nagayasu, 2021. "Is Inflation Fiscally Determined?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.
    7. Esat Durguti & Nexhat Kryeziu & Emine Gashi, 2020. "How Does the Budget Deficit Affect Inflation Rate-Evidence from Western Balkans," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 01-10, January.
    8. Ismail O. Fasanya & Ayinke Fajobi & Abiodun Adetokunbo, 2021. "Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary In Nigeria? New Evidence From Bounds Testing To Cointegration With Structural Breaks," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(228), pages 123-148, January –.
    9. Hove, Seedwell & Tchana Tchana, Fulbert & Touna Mama, Albert, 2017. "Do monetary, fiscal and financial institutions really matter for inflation targeting in emerging market economies?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 128-149.
    10. Obaid, Shahid & Baig, Mirza Aqeel & Shah, Muzafar Ali, 2020. "Determining inflation as monetary or fiscal phenomenon: An empirical evidence from South Asia," BizEcons Quarterly, Strides Educational Foundation, vol. 6, pages 22-48.
    11. Abel M. Agoba, 2021. "Minimising the inflationary impact of fiscal deficits in Africa: The role of monetary, financial and political institutions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 724-740, January.
    12. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Luvanda, Eliab, 2021. "Fiscal Deficit and its Threshold Effects on Inflation in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(1), December.
    13. Bilal Raza & Khurram S Mughal, 2022. "Fiscal Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 108, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    14. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    15. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through & management of inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 178-188.
    16. Raimundo Soto & Bassem Kamar, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance in Resource Dependent Economies," Documentos de Trabajo 462, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    17. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Budget deficits, money supply and price level in West Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1-8, October.
    18. Mohanty, Deepak & John, Joice, 2015. "Determinants of inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-96.
    19. Carlos De Resende, 2007. "Cross-Country Estimates of the Degree of Fiscal Dominance and Central Bank Independence," Staff Working Papers 07-36, Bank of Canada.
    20. Ari Aisen & Francisco Veiga, 2008. "Political instability and inflation volatility," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 207-223, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:20:y:2016:i:4:p:551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: [z.rahimalipour] (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fecutir.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.