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Lasting peace or temporary calm? Rebel group decapitation and civil war outcomes

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  • Kirssa Cline Ryckman

Abstract

Existing research has found that killing or capturing rebel group leaders can lead to the termination of civil wars. This paper considers the quality of those terminations, examining how wars end and whether this produces a lasting peace or only a temporary reprieve from violence. Decapitation is expected to weaken rebel groups, shifting the balance of power to the government; however, results suggest that killing or capturing a rebel group leader tends to produce termination through inactivity rather than outright government victories. Decapitation is also found to have no effect on the chances of civil war recurrence. This suggests that the removal of rebel group leaders is effective primarily as a short-term strategy that does not tend to generate a lasting peace.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirssa Cline Ryckman, 2020. "Lasting peace or temporary calm? Rebel group decapitation and civil war outcomes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 172-192, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:37:y:2020:i:2:p:172-192
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894217724135
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    Cited by:

    1. Lesley-Ann Daniels, 2020. "How and When Amnesty during Conflict Affects Conflict Termination," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(9), pages 1612-1637, October.

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