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Do Terrorists Win? Rebels' Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes

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  • Fortna, Virginia Page

Abstract

How effective is terrorism? This question has generated lively scholarly debate and is of obvious importance to policy-makers. However, most existing studies of terrorism are not well equipped to answer this question because they lack an appropriate comparison. This article compares the outcomes of civil wars to assess whether rebel groups that use terrorism fare better than those who eschew this tactic. I evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of terrorism relative to other tactics used in civil war. Because terrorism is not a tactic employed at random, I first briefly explore empirically which groups use terrorism. Controlling for factors that may affect both the use of terrorism and war outcomes, I find that although civil wars involving terrorism last longer than other wars, terrorist rebel groups are generally less likely to achieve their larger political objectives than are nonterrorist groups. Terrorism may be less ineffective against democracies, but even in this context, terrorists do not win.

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  • Fortna, Virginia Page, 2015. "Do Terrorists Win? Rebels' Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 519-556, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:69:y:2015:i:03:p:519-556_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Tiffany S Chu & Jessica Maves Braithwaite, 2018. "The effect of sexual violence on negotiated outcomes in civil conflicts," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(3), pages 233-247, May.
    2. Christophe Muller & Pierre Pecher, 2021. "Terrorism, Insurgency, State Repression, and Cycles of Violence," Working Papers halshs-03134347, HAL.
    3. Yasutaka Tominaga, 2021. "Organizational context matters: explaining different responses to militant leadership targeting," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(3), pages 270-291, May.
    4. Forrester, Andrew C. & Powell, Benjamin & Nowrasteh, Alex & Landgrave, Michelangelo, 2019. "Do immigrants import terrorism?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 529-543.
    5. Daitian Li & Tony W Tong & Yangao Xiao & Feida Zhang, 2022. "Terrorism-induced uncertainty and firm R&D investment: A real options view," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(2), pages 255-267, March.
    6. Satya P. Das & Sajal Lahiri, 2021. "Why direct counter‐terrorism measures only may fail: An analysis of direct and preventive counter‐terrorism measures," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 17(4), pages 416-445, December.
    7. Justin M. Conrad & Kevin T. Greene & James Igoe Walsh & Beth Elise Whitaker, 2019. "Rebel Natural Resource Exploitation and Conflict Duration," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(3), pages 591-616, March.
    8. Seden Akcinaroglu & Efe Tokdemir, 2018. "To instill fear or love: Terrorist groups and the strategy of building reputation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 355-377, July.
    9. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2023. "Islamist terrorism and the status of women," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2021. "Islamist terrorism and the role of women," Discussion Paper Series 2021-02, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    11. Kim, Hyeong Joon & Han, Seung Hun & Mun, Seongjae, 2022. "Analyzing the effects of terrorist attacks on the value of cash holdings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    12. Christopher Linebarger & Andrew J. Enterline & Steven R. Liebel, 2020. "Shaken or stirred? Terrorism and third-party state resolve in civil war interventions," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 301-322, May.
    13. Chelsea Estancona & Lindsay Reid, 2022. "Pro-government militias and civil war termination," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(3), pages 291-310, May.
    14. Martin Gassebner & Paul Schaudt & Melvin H. L. Wong, 2020. "Armed Groups in Conflict: Competition and Political Violence in Pakistan," CESifo Working Paper Series 8372, CESifo.
    15. Sara MT Polo, 2020. "The quality of terrorist violence: Explaining the logic of terrorist target choice," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(2), pages 235-250, March.
    16. Peri, Giovanni & Rees, Daniel I. & Smith, Brock, 2020. "Terrorism, Political Opinions, and Election Outcomes: Evidence from Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 13090, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Kirssa Cline Ryckman, 2020. "Lasting peace or temporary calm? Rebel group decapitation and civil war outcomes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 172-192, March.
    18. William Spaniel, 2019. "Rational Overreaction to Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(3), pages 786-810, March.
    19. Siddhartha Mitra, 2019. "Controlling Terrorism Through the Nudging of Social Interactions," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 180-190, December.
    20. Therese Anders, 2020. "Territorial control in civil wars: Theory and measurement using machine learning," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(6), pages 701-714, November.
    21. Brandon Prins & Anup Phayal & Ursula E Daxecker, 2019. "Fueling rebellion: Maritime piracy and the duration of civil war," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 128-147, June.

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