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Moments in time: Temporal patterns in the effect of democracy and trade on conflict

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  • Mark David Nieman

Abstract

Building on economic norms theory, I argue that the causes of international conflict may be contextual rather than constant over time. I explore the temporal patterns in the predictors of conflict in data on European conflict between 1870 and 2001, using an endogenous Markov chain Monte Carlo Poisson change-point model. I find that the period can be divided into two time periods, different in terms of the direction of the effect of the main conflict predictors. While democracy has a positive effect on conflict in the period between 1870 and 1938, it has a negative effect from 1938 to 2001. Likewise, trade initially has no impact on conflict, but later exerts a pacifying effect. Post-estimation analyses suggest that such patterns are best explained by the externalization of contractual norms, which is consistent with economic norms theory.

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  • Mark David Nieman, 2016. "Moments in time: Temporal patterns in the effect of democracy and trade on conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 273-293, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:33:y:2016:i:3:p:273-293
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894215570427
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