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What are the Preconditions for Turnarounds in Failing States?

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  • Lisa Chauvet

    (IRD, DIAL Paris, France)

  • Paul Collier

    (Department of Economics Centre for the Study of African Economies Oxford University, Oxford, UK, paul.collier@economics.oxford.ac.uk)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the preconditions for sustained policy turnarounds in failing states. Our dependent variable is the probability of the commencement of a turnaround that eventually becomes both sustained and substantial. We focus upon the explanatory variables of resource rents, education, and aid, distinguishing between finance and technical assistance. Overall, we find that these variables have significant and large effects on the duration of state failure. Appropriate donor intervention can radically shorten state failure, whereas additional finance, whether from aid or resource rents, has the opposite effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Chauvet & Paul Collier, 2008. "What are the Preconditions for Turnarounds in Failing States?," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(4), pages 332-348, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:25:y:2008:i:4:p:332-348
    DOI: 10.1080/07388940802397475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Chauvet & Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2010. "Paradise Lost: The Costs of State Failure in the Pacific," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 961-980.
    2. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Remy Bolito-Losembe, 2014. "Corruption et Etats fragiles africains," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 50-58.
    3. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick MartinShields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series 178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    5. Lebdioui, Amir, 2021. "The Multidimensional Indicator of Extractives-based Development (MINDEX): A new approach to measuring resource wealth and dependence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Simone Bertoli & Elisa Ticci, 2012. "A Fragile Guideline to Development Assistance," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 30(2), pages 211-230, March.
    7. Graziella Bertocchi, 2011. "Growth, Colonization, and Institutional Development. In and Out of Africa," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 064, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    8. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Quantifying economic recovery from the recent global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 87410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Guillaumont, Patrick & McGillivray, Mark & Wagner, Laurent, 2017. "Performance Assessment, Vulnerability, Human Capital, and the Allocation of Aid Among Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-26.
    10. Chuku Chuku & Onye Kenneth, 2019. "Working Paper 307 - The Macroeconomics of State Fragility in Africa," Working Paper Series 2433, African Development Bank.
    11. David Carment & Yiagadeesen Samy, 2017. "Exiting the fragility trap: Rethinking our approach to the world's most fragile states," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-181, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Martin-Shields, Charles, 2017. "State fragility as a cause of forced displacement: identifying theoretical channels for empirical research," IDOS Discussion Papers 30/2017, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    13. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Asongu Simplice, 2016. "State fragility, rent seeking and lobbying: evidence from African data," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(10), pages 1016-1030, October.
    14. Amir Lebdioui, 2021. "Are we measuring natural resource wealth correctly?: A reconceptualization of natural resource value in the era of climate change," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-18, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. David Carment & Yiagadeesen Samy, 2019. "Aid targeting to fragile and conflict-affected states and implications for aid effectiveness," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-8, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Anthony J. Venables, 2010. "Economic geography and African development," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 469-483, August.
    17. Yiagadeesen Samy & David Carment, 2019. "Aid Targeting to Fragile and Conflict-Affected States and Implications for Aid Effectiveness," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(2), pages 93-102.
    18. Bergh, Andreas & Mirkina, Irina & Nilsson, Therese, 2013. "More Open – Better Governed? Evidence from High- and Low-income Countries," Working Paper Series 997, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    19. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick Martin-Shields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Lisa Chauvet & Paul Collier, 2008. "Aid and Reform in Failing States," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 22(1), pages 15-24, May.

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