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When Do They Stop? Modeling the Termination of War

Author

Listed:
  • Michaela Mattes

    (Rice University Department of Political Science Houston, Texas, USA michaela@rice.edu)

  • T. Clifton Morgan

    (Rice University Department of Political Science Houston, Texas, USA)

Abstract

This paper deals with war termination. We develop a formal model based on the logic of domestic political accountability. We assume that leaders seek to maximize the likelihood that they will stay in office and that their decisions regarding war termination are responsive to their winning coalition's expectations and sensitivity to costs and to the costs of war. Our model generates predictions about when state leaders will prefer to terminate an ongoing war, given specific terms of settlement. By applying these results to both sides in a war, we can use the model to develop propositions regarding the terms of settlement and the duration of war given varying expectations, costs, and sensitivity to costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaela Mattes & T. Clifton Morgan, 2004. "When Do They Stop? Modeling the Termination of War," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(3), pages 179-193, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:21:y:2004:i:3:p:179-193
    DOI: 10.1080/07388940490487261
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Slantchev, Branislav L., 2003. "The Power to Hurt: Costly Conflict with Completely Informed States," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 123-133, February.
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    4. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno & Siverson, Randolph M. & Woller, Gary, 1992. "War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 638-646, September.
    5. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno & Siverson, Randolph M., 1995. "War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(4), pages 841-855, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Zambrano & Hernando Zuleta, 2016. "Revealing the preferences of the FARC," Documentos CEDE 14572, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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