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The Impact of Government Borrowing Costs on Fiscal Discipline

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  • Oļegs Tkačevs
  • Kārlis Vilerts

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of government borrowing costs on fiscal discipline against the background of unprecedentedly low interest rates in advanced economies brought about by ultra‐expansionary monetary policies of recent years. Applying the panel data econometric approach for a sample of OECD and 11 early euro area countries over the period 1985–2015, the study suggests a positive and statistically significant impact of government borrowing costs on cyclically adjusted primary balances, indicating that a decrease in borrowing costs leads to a deterioration of fiscal policy stance. The findings herein also suggest that this effect in the euro area seems to be driven by a group of its peripheral rather than core countries and appears to work through the expenditure (more specifically, current expenditure) channel. From the economic policy perspective, these findings imply that monetary policy measures resulting in ultra‐low interest rates may cause negative side effects for fiscal discipline.

Suggested Citation

  • Oļegs Tkačevs & Kārlis Vilerts, 2019. "The Impact of Government Borrowing Costs on Fiscal Discipline," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 446-471, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:72:y:2019:i:3:p:446-471
    DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12207
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    Cited by:

    1. Binh Thai Pham & Hector Sala, 2023. "Fiscal deficits and the socioeconomic consequences of rebalancing: Insights from a TVP‐VAR with stochastic volatility," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 214-235, June.
    2. Emmanuel Mamatzakis, 2024. "Dynamic panel analysis of the EU's fiscal reaction function with threshold effects," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(3), pages 520-545, August.
    3. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2022. "Euro Area Periphery Countries' Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 544-568, June.
    4. Karsten Staehr & Oļegs Tkačevs & Katri Urke, 2024. "Fiscal performance under inflation and inflation surprises: evidence from fiscal reaction functions for the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(4), pages 1477-1504, November.
    5. Antonio Afonso & Josee Alves & Olegs Matvejevs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2024. "Impact of sovereign debt maturity on fiscal sustainability," Working Papers 2024/05, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2022. "Market-Induced Fiscal Discipline in Europe," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 259-287, July.
    7. Tanweer Akram, 2021. "A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(2), pages 323-339, October.
    8. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2021. "Veto players, market discipline, and structural fiscal consolidations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 361-384, September.
    9. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "An empirical analysis of long-term Brazilian interest rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Hülsewig, Oliver & Steinbach, Armin, 2021. "Monetary financing and fiscal discipline," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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