IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rsr/supplm/v65y2017i6p118-123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Forecast Models – Concepts And Theoretical Notions

Author

Listed:
  • Florin Paul Costel LILEA

    („Artifex” University of Bucharest)

  • Andreea – Ioana MARINESCU

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

Abstract

The present age is characterized by a rapid system of change, thus increasing the need to know these changes with the anticipation of future developments. Even if, in anticipation of future developments with the help of the macroeconomic forecast, we are talking about relative knowledge, this knowledge allows both the creation of a set of solutions to adapt to the transformations that are required, as well as the reduction of possible risks. Thus, in this article, the authors intend to present some theoretical notions regarding the macroeconomic forecast and its role in determining the evolution of activities carried out in various economic or social sectors. At the same time, based on the theoretical notions, the authors will present the particularities of the use of the linear regression model in the analysis of the evolution of the macroeconomic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Andreea – Ioana MARINESCU, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecast Models – Concepts And Theoretical Notions," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 118-123, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:6:p:118-123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revistadestatistica.ro/supliment/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/RRSS_06_2017_A06_EN.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Janusz GRABARA & Alexandru MANOLE, 2016. "Using the Dynamic Model ARMA to Forecast the Macroeconomic Evolution," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 3-13, January.
    2. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    3. Corbae,Dean & Durlauf,Steven N. & Hansen,Bruce E. (ed.), 2006. "Econometric Theory and Practice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521807234, January.
    4. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mirela PANAIT & Andreea - Ioana MARINESCU & Georgiana NITA, 2017. "Models and indicators used in macroeconomic forecast," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(3), pages 40-48, March.
    5. Alexandru MANOLE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Alexandru BADIU & Doina AVRAM, 2017. "Theoretical considerations regarding the main macroeconomic proportions and correlations," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(3), pages 169-181, March.
    6. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    7. Constantin Anghelache & Alexandru Manole & Madalina Gabriela Anghel & Marius Popovici, 2016. "The analysis of the interconnections between the indicators of the external payment balance and the macroeconomic aggregates of results," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 3-8, March.
    8. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Normalization in Econometrics," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 221-252.
    9. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 20-24, May.
    10. Oller, Lars-Erik & Teterukovsky, Alex, 2007. "Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 205-217.
    11. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Macroeconomic models used in structural analysis of GDP," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 197-206, Spring.
    12. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Time‐Varying Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 551-575, June.
    13. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Ioan Constantin DIMA & Mãdãlina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2016. "Using the Autoregressive Model for the Economic Forecast during the Period 2014- 2018," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 21-31, January.
    14. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2017. "Macroeconomic models used in structural analysis of GDP," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 197-206, Spring.
    15. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "Essentials aspects on macroeconomic variables and their correlations," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 151-162, Spring.
    16. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mario G.R. PAGLIACCI & Ligia PRODAN, 2013. "Model For Macroeconomic - Analyse Based On The Regression Function," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 61(1), pages 18-30, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Aurelian DIACONU & Radu Titus MARINESCU & Gyorgy BODO, 2017. "Structural Methods Used In Forecasting Studies," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 66-74, April.
    2. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Tudor SAMSON & Radu STOICA, 2017. "Methods And Techniques For Preparing Forecasts," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 26-36, April.
    3. Constantin Anghelache & Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Alina-Georgiana Solomon, 2017. "National Accounts System: Source of Information in Macroeconomic Forecast," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 76-82, April.
    4. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Doina BUREA & Alexandru URSACHE, 2017. "The main interconnections between balance of payments indicators and the macroeconomic aggregates results," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(3), pages 189-196, March.
    5. Alexandru MANOLE & Emilia STANCIU, 2017. "The Importance Of The Forecasting Methodology In Establishing And Evaluating The National Action Directions," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 154-162, June.
    6. Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Georgeta Lixandru & Marius Popovici & Alina – Georgiana Solomon & Emilia Stanciu, 2017. "Theoretical Elements on the Use of Price Indices for Inflation Measurement," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(3), pages 38-47, July.
    7. Alexandru MANOLE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Alexandru BADIU & Doina AVRAM, 2017. "Theoretical considerations regarding the main macroeconomic proportions and correlations," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(3), pages 169-181, March.
    8. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "Blended identification in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
    10. Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Alexandru MANOLE & Maria MIREA & Andreea - Ioana MARINESCU, 2017. "Models Of Development Of Labour Productivity Forecast," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 107-114, April.
    11. Alexandru MANOLE & Mariana BUNEA & Ana CARP & Diana-Valentina SOARE & Maria MIREA, 2017. "Model analysis of the correlation between final consumption and its components," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(2), pages 105-113, February.
    12. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Advances in nowcasting economic activity: The role of heterogeneous dynamics and fat tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    13. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Radu STOICA, 2017. "Quarterly Analysis Of Gross Domestic Product Evolution - Significance Of Growth Rate," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 16-28, June.
    14. Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Alexandru Manole & Alina-Georgiana Solomon, 2017. "Using the System of National Accounts in the Forecasting Activity," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 91-96, April.
    15. Ioana Crăciun (Timofei) & Diana Sabău-Popa & Réka Lakatos-Fodor, 2021. "Correlations Between Financial Indicators Of Companies And Sustainable Development Indicators," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 195-202, July.
    16. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Georgiana NITA & Tudor SAMSON, 2017. "Human Resource Forecasting Models," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 87-98, April.
    17. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhentao Shi, 2021. "Boosting: Why You Can Use The Hp Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 521-570, May.
    18. Lu, Fei & Ma, Feng & Hu, Shiyang, 2024. "Does energy consumption play a key role? Re-evaluating the energy consumption-economic growth nexus from GDP growth rates forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
    20. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mirela PANAIT & Andreea - Ioana MARINESCU & Georgiana NITA, 2017. "Models and indicators used in macroeconomic forecast," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(3), pages 40-48, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anticipation; macroeconomic forecast; model; simple regression; evolution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:6:p:118-123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adrian Visoiu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/stagvro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.