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Using the Dynamic Model ARMA to Forecast the Macroeconomic Evolution

Author

Listed:
  • Constantin ANGHELACHE

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, “Artifex” University of Bucharest)

  • Janusz GRABARA

    (Czestochowa University of Technology)

  • Alexandru MANOLE

    (“Artifex” University of Bucharest)

Abstract

The ARMA models, provide in the statistical analysis of time series, a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the auto-regression and the second for the moving average. We want to estimate, by using the informatics soft Eviews, the future evolutions of the gross domestic product in Romania, for the period 2009 -2013, obtaining thus, on the ground of the official evolutions during the period 1991 – 2008, a model AR meant to grasp ex post the evolution of the economic growth from our country, for the period 2009 -2013. To achieve ex post the forecast for the evolution of the GDP, during the period 2009 -2013, we will use as “sample” the data published in the interval 1991 -2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantin ANGHELACHE & Janusz GRABARA & Alexandru MANOLE, 2016. "Using the Dynamic Model ARMA to Forecast the Macroeconomic Evolution," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 3-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:64:y:2016:i:1:p:3-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    2. Changli He & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008. "Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 208-230, Spring.
    3. Bauer, Gregory H. & Vorkink, Keith, 2011. "Forecasting multivariate realized stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 93-101, January.
    4. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL, 2015. "Theoretical aspects concerning the use of the statistical-econometric instruments the analysis of the financial assets," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(9), pages 44-48, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Mirela PANAIT & Andreea - Ioana MARINESCU & Georgiana NITA, 2017. "Models and indicators used in macroeconomic forecast," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(3), pages 40-48, March.
    2. Alexandru MANOLE & Emilia STANCIU, 2017. "The Importance Of The Forecasting Methodology In Establishing And Evaluating The National Action Directions," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 154-162, June.
    3. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Tudor SAMSON & Radu STOICA, 2017. "Methods And Techniques For Preparing Forecasts," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 26-36, April.
    4. Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Alexandru Manole & Alina-Georgiana Solomon, 2017. "Using the System of National Accounts in the Forecasting Activity," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 91-96, April.
    5. Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Aurelian DIACONU & Radu Titus MARINESCU & Gyorgy BODO, 2017. "Structural Methods Used In Forecasting Studies," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 66-74, April.
    6. Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Alexandru MANOLE & Maria MIREA & Andreea - Ioana MARINESCU, 2017. "Models Of Development Of Labour Productivity Forecast," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 107-114, April.
    7. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Georgiana NITA & Tudor SAMSON, 2017. "Human Resource Forecasting Models," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 87-98, April.
    8. Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Andreea – Ioana MARINESCU, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecast Models – Concepts And Theoretical Notions," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 118-123, June.

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