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Equilibrium and auto regression models used for macroeconomic prognosis

Author

Listed:
  • Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL

    (Universitatea “ARTIFEX” din Bucuresti)

  • Aurelian DIACONU

    (Universitatea “ARTIFEX” din Bucuresti)

Abstract

The development of econometric models had as prime effect the decrease of critics brought over time on some other types of instruments. In this paper, the authors propose to outline some relevant aspects regarding the making of forecasts through the application of equilibrium and auto-regression models. The prognoses concerning certain classes of the modifications of the parameters out an auto-regressive model are more solid. Hence, in the practical studies one may reach outcomes in which the prognoses of correction type are less correct than those obtained through autoregressive models, which prevent us to assume that a model can function with the same accuracy as to the economic and econometric interpretation as well as to the prognoses accomplishment.

Suggested Citation

  • Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "Equilibrium and auto regression models used for macroeconomic prognosis," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(7), pages 70-78, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:64:y:2016:i:7:p:70-78
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Wang, Luya & Li, Kunpeng & Wang, Zhengwei, 2014. "Quasi maximum likelihood estimation for simultaneous spatial autoregressive models," MPRA Paper 59901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Philipp Piribauer & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, 2016. "Bayesian Variable Selection in Spatial Autoregressive Models," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 457-479, October.
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    6. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1999. "Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9927-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Ciprian ALEXANDRU & Nicoleta CARAGEA & Ana Maria DOBRE, 2013. "Vector Autoregressive Models Using “R”," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 1, pages 59-67, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Radu STOICA, 2017. "Quarterly Analysis Of Gross Domestic Product Evolution - Significance Of Growth Rate," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 16-28, June.

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