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Predicting payment migration in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Anneke Kosse
  • Zhentong Lu
  • Gabriel Xerri

Abstract

Canada has two core payment systems for processing funds transfers between financial institutions: the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) and the Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS). These will be replaced in the next few years by three new systems: Lynx, the Settlement Optimization Engine (SOE) and the Real-Time Rail (RTR). We employ historical LVTS and ACSS data and use the discrete choice demand estimation approach to uncover end users’ and financial institutions’ preferences when deciding which payment instruments and payment systems, respectively, to use. Based on the estimated preferences revealed, we conduct various counterfactual analyses to predict the volume and value shares of the future payment systems. The results show that small-value LVTS payments will likely migrate to the SOE. Also, in the short run, about CA$10 000 billion of LVTS and ACSS payments per year is anticipated to migrate to the RTR if not subject to maximum transaction values. These migration patterns raise important policy questions, such as whether the future systems should be subject to value caps and/or higher collateral requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Anneke Kosse & Zhentong Lu & Gabriel Xerri, . "Predicting payment migration in Canada," Journal of Financial Market Infrastructures, Journal of Financial Market Infrastructures.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsk:journ7:7816406
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kosse, A., 2014. "Consumer payment choices : Room for further digisation?," Other publications TiSEM 7486cb21-13a2-4609-bad6-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Anneke Kosse & Zhentong Lu & Gabriel Xerri, 2020. "An Economic Perspective on Payments Migration," Staff Working Papers 20-24, Bank of Canada.
    3. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    4. Francisco Rivadeneyra & Nellie Zhang, 2020. "Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System," Discussion Papers 2020-9, Bank of Canada.
    5. Kim Huynh & Gradon Nicholls & Oleksandr Shcherbakov, 2019. "Explaining the Interplay Between Merchant Acceptance and Consumer Adoption in Two-Sided Markets for Payment Methods," Staff Working Papers 19-32, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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