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Improving the accuracy of consensus forecasts for the EURO area

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu)

    (Faculty of Cybernetics, Statistics and Economic Informatics, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

Abstract

Starting from the predictions made by the Consensus Economics for the average percentage change in the previous year of the imports and exports of Euro Area for 2010 and 2011, some strategies to improve the forecasts accuracy were tested. The most accurate forecasts for 2010 were those based on ARIMA models for the mentioned indicators. An improvement of the forecasts accuracy for the average percentage of change in imports was registered for 2011 by combining the lowest and the highest predicted values of the experts using equally weighted (EW) scheme. Knowing the historical accuracy of Consensus forecasts and the best strategies to improve it, a better orientation could be done in the future decision-making of economic agents, especially central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2012. "Improving the accuracy of consensus forecasts for the EURO area," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 4(2), pages 11-15, Decembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:rse:wpaper:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:11-15
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filip Novotný & Marie Raková, 2011. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 348-366, August.
    2. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
    3. Capistrán, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & White (the late), Halbert (ed.), 1999. "Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: Festschrift in Honour of Clive W. J. Granger," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296836.
    5. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts; accuracy; combined forecasts; Consensus forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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