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Analysis of Bank Default Factors in 2013–2019
[Анализ Факторов Банковских Дефолтов 2013–2019 Годов]

Author

Listed:
  • Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Bekirova, Olga (Бекирова, Ольга)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

This paper studies bank defaults in the Russian Federation in recent years. Firstly, the Central Bank of Russia tightened prudential regulation in 2013. Secondly, a decrease in oil prices and economic sanctions resulted in a crisis in 2014–2015 with a huge depreciation of the national currency, which influenced the Russian banking sector substantially. Almost half of banks in Russia have been closed in the last 6 years. Through binary logistic models of bank defaults based on data for Q3 2013 through Q1 2019, the paper reveals the key factors which had an influence on the sustainability of Russian banks. The main result is that involvement in classical banking exposes banks to default risks. Excessive reserves appeared to be an important indicator of default as well. A special measure of liquidity creation was constructed. We found that high levels of liquidity creation increased the probability of bank failure. It is also worth mentioning that excessive liquidity creation put higher risks on a given bank in the crisis period. We can conclude that regulatory authorities should pay attention to high liquidity creators, especially in the group of small and medium-sized banks. We also found some evidence of an improvement in prudential regulation by the Bank of Russia. Separate models were estimated for the sample of 150 larger banks, which is more homogeneous and is of primary interest for the regulator. A number of variables, including the level of liquidity creation, turned out to be insignificant; however, high reserve values for possible losses still increase the probability of default to a large extent. Logistic panel regressions were also considered as an alternative specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Bekirova, Olga (Бекирова, Ольга), 2020. "Analysis of Bank Default Factors in 2013–2019 [Анализ Факторов Банковских Дефолтов 2013–2019 Годов]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 106-133, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep2018
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2005. "How Big a Problem is Too Big to Fail?," NBER Working Papers 11814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Karminsky, A. & Kostrov, A., 2013. "Modeling the Default Probabilities of Russian Banks: Extended Abillities," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 64-86.
    3. Zhivaikina, A. & Peresetsky, A., 2017. "Russian Bank Credit Ratings and Bank License Withdrawal 2012-2016," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 49-80.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekirova, Olga & Zubarev, Andrey, 2023. "Determinants of risk, profitability and default probability of Russian banks," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 71, pages 20-38.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank default; logistic regression; Central Bank.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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