IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnp/ecopol/ep2016.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimization of Investment Portfolios Taking into Account the Behavioral Perception of Monetary Policy
[Оптимизация Инвестиционных Портфелей С Учетом Поведенческого Восприятия Денежно-Кредитной Политики]

Author

Listed:
  • Redkin, Nikita (Редкин, Никита)

    (Institute of Finance and Economics, University of Tyumen)

Abstract

The paper presents an adaptation of modern behavioral economic theory to portfolio investment in the Russian stock market. The author analyzes the possibility of optimizing the investment portfolio for a private investor using portfolio correction based on changes in monetary policy indicators available in media sources. The behavioral model of portfolio selection is used, based on the value of shares on Moscow Exchange and taking into account a reference point in the theory of prospects in the form of indicators regulated by the Bank of Russia. The key rate and the standard of required reserves, inflation, the average rate on bank deposits, and the exchange rate of the US dollar to the ruble are used as monetary policy in­dicators. The behavioral model is a modified theory of average variance, in which the calculation of profitability and risk is carried out according to the main behavioral theories, namely the cumulative prospect and mental accounting theory. The author considers various options for forming a portfolio in accordance with the level of risk aversion. As a result of comparing the models of optimization of the average variance portfolio and the models based on the modified theory of average variance using behavioral factors, higher risk-return ratios of the modified models were revealed in the forecast period, while for the analyzed period all models were located on the line of Markowitz efficient portfolio. As a further development of the portfolio behavioral theory, the possibilities of adapting the model are proposed not only depending on the points of reference, but also de­pending on changes in risk acceptance coefficients and probability estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Redkin, Nikita (Редкин, Никита), 2020. "Optimization of Investment Portfolios Taking into Account the Behavioral Perception of Monetary Policy [Оптимизация Инвестиционных Портфелей С Учетом Поведенческого Восприятия Денежно-Кредитной Пол," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 44-73, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep2016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/ecopol/ep2016.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2009. "The Monetary Policy Implications of Behavioral Asset Bubbles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. Federico Favaretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2014. "Behavioral Economics and Monetary Policy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1501, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    3. Santoro, Emiliano & Petrella, Ivan & Pfajfar, Damjan & Gaffeo, Edoardo, 2014. "Loss aversion and the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 19-36.
    4. repec:wly:soecon:v:80:1:y:2013:p:252-270 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2020. "The Hidden Heterogeneity of Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations: The Role of Preferences," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-666, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, revised Feb 2023.
    2. Dominika Czyz & Karolina Safarzynska, 2023. "Catastrophic Damages and the Optimal Carbon Tax Under Loss Aversion," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(2), pages 303-340, June.
    3. Ivan Jaccard, 2024. "Monetary Asymmetries Without (And With) Price Stickiness," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 1003-1047, May.
    4. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The Role of Households' Borrowing Constraints in the Transmission of Monetary Policy This paper investigates how the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy depends on the distribution of ," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Karamé, Frédéric, 2015. "Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 85-102.
    6. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Fabrizio Venditti & Oscar JordÃ, 2023. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1422, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. O. Klishchuk, 2018. "The low sensibility of monetary transmission mechanism in low-income countries," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 129-150.
    8. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The role of households' borrowing constraints in the transmission of monetary policy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403257, HAL.
    9. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission with Downward Interest Rate Rigidity," Working Papers hal-04159706, HAL.
    10. Bursian, Dirk & Faia, Ester, 2018. "Trust in the monetary authority," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 66-79.
    11. Régis Barnichon & Christian Matthes, 2014. "Gaussian Mixture Approximations of Impulse Responses and the Nonlinear Effects of Monetary Shocks," Working Paper 16-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary Tightening, Inflation Drivers and Financial Stress," Working Paper Series 2023-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. André Lunardelli & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2019. "The New Keynesian Model and Sacrifice Ratios: Some Measurement Issues," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    14. William Morrison, Robert Oxoby, 2016. "Risk Taking, Intertemporal Choice, and Loss Aversion," LCERPA Working Papers 0096, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Jul 2016.
    15. Baqaee, David Rezza, 2020. "Asymmetric inflation expectations, downward rigidity of wages, and asymmetric business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 174-193.
    16. Rothfelder, Mario & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Other publications TiSEM 40ca581a-e228-49ae-911f-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5buvtkmlk091prrdje4a0tbkla is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2022. "Economic sentiments and international risk sharing," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 208-229.
    20. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Giannini, Bianca, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 373-387.
    21. de Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D., 2017. "Policy Shocks and Wage Rigidities: Empirical Evidence from Regional Effects of National Shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1717, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cumulative prospect theory; behavioral finance; modern portfolio theory.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep2016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RANEPA maintainer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aneeeru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.