IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1422_23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier

Author

Listed:
  • Piergiorgio Alessandri

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Fabrizio Venditti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Oscar JordÃ

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and University of California, Davis)

Abstract

We show that financial markets play an important role in rendering the transmission of monetary policy shocks asymmetric in the US. Credit spreads only adjust to unexpected increases in interest rates, causing output and prices to respond more to a tightening than an expansion. The ‘financial multiplier’ of monetary policy – defined as the ratio between the cumulative responses of employment and credit spreads at the one-year horizon – is small and subject to significant estimation uncertainty for a monetary expansion, it is about -2 for a monetary tightening, and it reaches -4 for a monetary tightening that take place under tense credit market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Piergiorgio Alessandri & Fabrizio Venditti & Oscar JordÃ, 2023. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1422, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1422_23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2023/2023-1422/en_tema_1422.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhigu He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2012. "A Model of Capital and Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 735-777.
    2. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 66-78, March.
    3. Dario Caldara & Edward Herbst, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 157-192, January.
    4. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    5. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2010. "When It Cannot Get Better or Worse: The Asymmetric Impact of Good and Bad News on Bond Returns in Expansions and Recessions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(1), pages 119-155.
    6. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Jordà , Òscar & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2023. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 18166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    4. Valentina Michelangeli & Enrico Sette & José-Luis Peydró, 2021. "Borrower versus Ban Channels in Lending: Experimental- and Administrative-Based Evidence," Working Papers 1307, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei‐Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2024. "Nonlinear Transmission of Financial Shocks: Some New Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 5-33, February.
    6. Ai, Hengjie & Li, Kai & Yang, Fang, 2020. "Financial intermediation and capital reallocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 663-686.
    7. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Saki Bigio & Adrien d'Avernas, 2021. "Financial Risk Capacity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 142-181, October.
    9. Jondeau, Eric & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "Bank capital shortfall in the euro area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Yavuz Arslan & Bulent Guler & Burhan Kuruscu, 2020. "Credit supply driven boom-bust cycles," BIS Working Papers 885, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    12. Arsenii Mishin, 2023. "Dynamic Bank Capital Regulation in the Presence of Shadow Banks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 965-990, December.
    13. Gareth Anderson & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2020. "Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 2005, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    14. Poeschl, Johannes & Zhang, Xue, 2018. "Bank Capital Regulation and Endogenous Shadow Banking Crises," MPRA Paper 92529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    16. Peydró, José-Luis & Sette, Enrico & Michelangeli, Valentina, 2020. "Credit demand vs. supply channels: Experimental- and administrative-based evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15276, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Singh, Rajesh & Hasan, Mohammad, 2023. "Cross-country Spillovers in Interbank Liquidity Crises," ISU General Staff Papers 202311011603320000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Eric Jondeau & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2018. "A General Equilibrium Appraisal of Capital Shortfall," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-12, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Feb 2018.
    19. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2014. "The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; credit spreads; local projections; Kitagawa decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1422_23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.