IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnd/arjebs/v8y2016i3p48-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Seasonality and Stochastic Cycles Affect Output Growth in Nigeria? Lessons for Development Planning

Author

Listed:
  • Kanayo Ogujiuba
  • Terfa W Abraham
  • Nancy Stiegler

Abstract

This paper examines the seasonality and stochastic cycle associated with GDP growth in Nigeria using two measures of filter. Our findings include, that the Christiano & Fitzgerald (2003) filter removed low-periodicity stochastic cycles associated with output growth in Nigeria compared to the Hodrick Prescott filter. The smoothed GDP trend further revealed that growth in Nigeria was higher but unstable in periods of development planning than in periods without development plans. This suggests that development planning in Nigeria was not accompanied by judicious mix of fiscal and monetary policy in the 1980s/1990s. Likewise, effort to achieve sustainable growth and development, since the return to democracy in 1999, has not been accompanied by effective planning. To achieve inclusive development therefore, there is the need to return to development planning in order to address the destruction meted by insurgents in the North east and the lack of inclusiveness in Nigeria’s growth observed in recent times.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanayo Ogujiuba & Terfa W Abraham & Nancy Stiegler, 2016. "Does Seasonality and Stochastic Cycles Affect Output Growth in Nigeria? Lessons for Development Planning," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(3), pages 48-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:48-53
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v8i3(J).1288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/1288/1245
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/1288
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22610/jebs.v8i3(J).1288?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hernando Zuleta, 2012. "Seasonal Fluctuations And Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Robert M. de Jong & Neslihan Sakarya, 2016. "The Econometrics of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 310-317, May.
    3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, 2013. "Turn Down the Heat : Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience [Bajemos la temperatura : fenómenos climáticos extremos, impactos regionales y posibidades de adaptación - resum," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14000.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Islam, Md. Mofakkarul & Sarker, Md. Asaduzzaman & Al Mamun, Md. Abdullah & Mamun-ur-Rashid, Md. & Roy, Debashis, 2021. "Stepping Up versus Stepping Out: On the outcomes and drivers of two alternative climate change adaptation strategies of smallholders," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Courage Mlambo, 2022. "Non-Renewable Resources and Sustainable Resource Extraction: An Empirical Test of the Hotelling Rule’s Significance to Gold Extraction in South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Randell, Heather & Jiang, Chengsheng & Liang, Xin-Zhong & Murtugudde, Raghu & Sapkota, Amir, 2021. "Food insecurity and compound environmental shocks in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Alain Hecq & Elisa Voisin, 2023. "Predicting Crashes in Oil Prices During The Covid-19 Pandemic with Mixed Causal-Noncausal Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 209-233, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. [WEF] World Economic Forum, 2016. "The Global Risks Report 2016: 11th Edition," Working Papers id:10737, eSocialSciences.
    7. Egon Smeral, 2019. "Seasonal forecasting performance considering varying income elasticities in tourism demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 355-374, May.
    8. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2021. "Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 151-183, November.
    9. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2016. "Testing financial markets convergence in Central and Eastern Europe: A non-linear single factor model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 323-334.
    10. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
    11. Ziwei Mei & Zhentao Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2348, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Francesco Giancaterini & Alain Hecq & Claudio Morana, 2022. "Is Climate Change Time-Reversible?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Wolf, Elias & Mokinski, Frieder & Schüler, Yves, 2020. "On adjusting the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter," Discussion Papers 11/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. -, 2015. "La economía del cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe: paradojas y desafíos del desarrollo sostenible," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 37310 edited by Cepal.
    15. Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Paola Bongini & Paweł Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2019. "The role of banks in CESEE countries: exploring non-standard determinants of economic growth," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 349-382, May.
    16. Sabaj, Ernil, 2018. "Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in the Western Balkans," MPRA Paper 84279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nghiem, Son & Tran, Bach & Afoakwah, Clifford & Byrnes, Joshua & Scuffham, Paul, 2021. "Wealthy, healthy and green: Are we there yet?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    18. Md. Jahangir Kabir & Mohammad Alauddin & Steven Crimp, 2016. "Farm-level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western Bangladesh: An Analysis of Adaptation Dynamics, Profitability and Risks," Discussion Papers Series 576, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    19. Dan Armeanu & Georgiana Camelia Crețan & Leonard Lache & Mihaela Mitroi, 2015. "Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy and Assessing the Sustainability of Economic Growth: A Multivariate Filter Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, March.
    20. Simrit Kaur & Harpreet Kaur, 2016. "Climate Change, Food Security, and Water Management in South Asia: Implications for Regional Cooperation," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:48-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Tayyab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.