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Do confidence indicators lead Greek economic activity?

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitriou Dimitrios
  • Pappas Anastasios
  • Kazanas Thanassis
  • Kenourgios Dimitris

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate the role of several confidence indicators (i.e., Economic Sentiment Indicator, Consumer Confidence Indicator, Construction Confidence Indicator and Industrial Confidence Indicator) as leading indicators to GDP and its components such as Investments and Private Consumption. Our econometric evaluation performed by popular techniques such as: i) rolling correlation methodology ii) Granger causality iii) ARIMA benchmark model and iv) Kalman filter technique. The results suggest that the inclusion of confidence indicators does not improve substantially the forecasting ability of our econometric models as far as macroeconomic variables are concerned. Thus, we conclude that there is space for improvement of the predictive power of confidence indicators in Greece.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitriou Dimitrios & Pappas Anastasios & Kazanas Thanassis & Kenourgios Dimitris, 2021. "Do confidence indicators lead Greek economic activity?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:rmk:rmkbae:v:8:y:2021:i:2:p:1-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Confidence indicators; GDP; Granger causality; ARIMA; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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