IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2013i3p144-163.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fractal Analysis of the Gold Market in China

Author

Listed:
  • Kedong YIN

    (School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.)

  • Hengda ZHANG

    (School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.)

  • Wenbo ZHANG

    (School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.)

  • Qian WEI

    (School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.)

Abstract

Based on fractal theory, this paper studies the fluctuation characteristics of the gold market in China. Using R/S analysis and fractal dimension analysis this paper demonstrates that the gold market possesses fractal characteristics and determines the length of the aperiodic circulation on the basis of the nonstationarity of the daily yield series of gold validation. With the MF-DFA method, the paper confirms the multifractal nature of the gold market and analyzes the factors that influence the multifractal nature. Based on the research, forecasts of the fractal interpolation curve can be brought into agreement with the original sequence by constructing a fractal interpolation model. Therefore, the paper provides intuitive evidence regarding the price movement predictions of gold market for investors and managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Kedong YIN & Hengda ZHANG & Wenbo ZHANG & Qian WEI, 2013. "Fractal Analysis of the Gold Market in China," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 144-163, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:144-163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_13/rjef3_2013p144-163.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Opong, Kwaku K. & Mulholland, Gwyneth & Fox, Alan F. & Farahmand, Kambiz, 1999. "The behaviour of some UK equity indices: An application of Hurst and BDS tests1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 267-282, September.
    2. Richards, Gordon R., 2000. "The fractal structure of exchange rates: measurement and forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 163-180, June.
    3. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2011. "Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 59-67, April.
    4. Batten, Jonathan & Ellis, Craig, 1996. "Fractal structures and naive trading systems: Evidence from the spot US dollar/Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 411-421, December.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
    6. Mulligan, Robert F., 2004. "Fractal analysis of highly volatile markets: an application to technology equities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 155-179, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Yaoqi & Yu, Zhuling & Yu, Chenxi & Cheng, Hui & Chen, Weixun & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "Asymmetric multifractal features of the price–volume correlation in China’s gold futures market based on MF-ADCCA," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Wu, Binghui & Duan, Tingting, 2017. "The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 99-106.
    3. Emrah BALKAN & Umut UYAR, 2022. "The Fractal Structure of CDS Spreads: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 106-121, April.
    4. He, Kaijian & Chen, Yanhui & Tso, Geoffrey K.F., 2017. "Price forecasting in the precious metal market: A multivariate EMD denoising approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 9-24.
    5. Indranil Ghosh & Manas K. Sanyal & R. K. Jana, 2021. "Co-movement and Dynamic Correlation of Financial and Energy Markets: An Integrated Framework of Nonlinear Dynamics, Wavelet Analysis and DCC-GARCH," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 503-527, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2011. "Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 59-67, April.
    2. Goddard, John & Onali, Enrico, 2012. "Self-affinity in financial asset returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Jamdee, Sutthisit & Los, Cornelis A., 2007. "Long memory options: LM evidence and simulations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 260-280, June.
    4. Sutthisit Jamdee & Cornelis A. Los, 2005. "Multifractal Modeling of the US Treasury Term Structure and Fed Funds Rate," Finance 0502021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & James C. Orlando, 2016. "Linkages Between the US and European Stock Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 143-153, April.
    7. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2009. "Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 154-163, September.
    8. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ellis, Craig & Fetherston, Thomas A., 2005. "Return anomalies on the Nikkei: Are they statistical illusions?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1125-1136.
    9. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2022. "Long-memory and volatility spillovers across petroleum futures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    10. A. Sensoy & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2013. "How much random does European Union walk? A time-varying long memory analysis," Working Papers Series 342, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Rasheed, Abdul A. & Sheng, Hsia Hua, 2021. "Exchange rate regimes and price efficiency: Empirical examination of the impact of financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Sanjay Sehgal & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2011. "A search for long‐range dependence and chaotic structure in Indian stock market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 96-104, May.
    13. Ivani Bora & Naliniprava Tripathy, 2016. "Random or Deterministic? Evidence from Indian Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1716-1721.
    14. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascare?nas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "Comprobación de la eficiencia débil en los principales mercados financieros latinoamericanos," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    15. Mynhardt, H. R. & Plastun, Alex & Makarenko, Inna, 2014. "Behavior of Financial Markets Efficiency During the Financial Market Crisis: 2007-2009," MPRA Paper 58942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    17. Vogl, Markus, 2022. "Controversy in financial chaos research and nonlinear dynamics: A short literature review," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    18. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2015. "Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 147-158.
    19. Ngene, Geoffrey & Tah, Kenneth A. & Darrat, Ali F., 2017. "Long memory or structural breaks: Some evidence for African stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-73.
    20. Erhard Reschenhofer & Manveer K. Mangat, 2021. "Fast computation and practical use of amplitudes at non-Fourier frequencies," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 1755-1773, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gold market; fractal; R/S analysis; MF-DFA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:144-163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.