IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/v5y2008i1p17-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the Correlation of Shocks Between the UK and the Core of Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Hall, S.G.

    (Leicester University and NIESR)

  • Yhap, B.

    (Imperial College, UK.)

Abstract

This paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation and GDP shocks between the UK and the three major European EMU countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these four countries. We can then examine the way the conditional correlation of shocks between the UK and the other European countries ahs been evolving over time. Our overall results Show that the shocks, which hit the UK, are now broadly symmetrical with France and Italy but that Germany seems to exhibit very low correlation with any of the other three countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, S.G. & Yhap, B., 2008. "Measuring the Correlation of Shocks Between the UK and the Core of Europe," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 17-26, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:17-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_08/rjef1_08_2.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Why Not a Global Currency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 243-247, May.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. M.J. Artis, 2003. "Reflections on the optimal currency area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 297-307.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Theoretical Issues Pertaining to Monetary Unions," NBER Working Papers 7393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    6. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1994. "A Common Monetary Standard or a Common Currency for Europe? Fiscal Lessons from the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 337-357, November.
    7. Buiter, Willem, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:69:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Prospects for the Evolution of the Economic Sectors’ Behavior," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 120-142.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 19-34, June.
    2. M.J. Artis, 2003. "Reflections on the optimal currency area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 297-307.
    3. Felipe G. Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy in Chile: From the Band to Floating and Beyond," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 152, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:69:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Han, Chulwoo & Park, Frank C., 2022. "A geometric framework for covariance dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    8. Anders Johansson, 2009. "An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 299-320.
    9. He, Hui & Yang, Jiawen, 2011. "Regime-switching analysis of ADR home market pass-through," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 204-214, January.
    10. Abu S. Amin & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2014. "Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature, Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 5-27, May.
    11. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions among the Greater China stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-58.
    12. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2009. "Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 659-667, May.
    13. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
    14. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Yu-Ann Wang, 2018. "Latent Volatility Granger Causality and Spillovers in Renewable Energy and Crude Oil ETFs," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-15, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    15. Mara Madaleno & Carlos Pinho, 2010. "Hedging Performance and Multiscale Relationships in the German Electricity Spot and Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, December.
    16. Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Yuan Yuan & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Exchange Rate and Industrial Commodity Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies," CARF F-Series CARF-F-172, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    17. Karl Pinno & Apostolos Serletis, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Industrial Production," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 191-216, July.
    18. Michael Artis, 2008. "What do we now know about currency unions?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 13-29.
    19. Vicente Meneu & Hipòlit Torró, 2003. "Asymmetric covariance in spot‐futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(11), pages 1019-1046, November.
    20. Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Value-at-risk for long and short trading positions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 641-663.
    21. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 430-454.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shocks; EMU; Europe; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:1:p:17-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.