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Analysis of Telephone Data: A Case Study of Forecasting Seasonal Time Series

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  • Howard E. Thompson
  • George C. Tiao

Abstract

In this paper, forecasting models are constructed for the monthly inward and outward station movements of the Wisconsin Telephone Company using an iterative procedure developed by Box and Jenkins. Data covering the period January 1951 through October 1966 were used to develop the model. Forecasts with 95-percent probability limits were calculated for three years from November 1966, and were compared with the actual observations. The properties of the models are discussed in detail. Alternative models for forecasting are also entertained and compared with those chosen.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard E. Thompson & George C. Tiao, 1971. "Analysis of Telephone Data: A Case Study of Forecasting Seasonal Time Series," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(2), pages 515-541, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:2:y:1971:i:autumn:p:515-541
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea BASTIANIN & Marzio GALEOTTI & Matteo MANERA, 2011. "Forecast evaluation in call centers: combined forecasts, flexible loss functions and economic criteria," Departmental Working Papers 2011-08, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    2. Ibrahim, Rouba & Ye, Han & L’Ecuyer, Pierre & Shen, Haipeng, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting call center arrivals: A literature survey and a case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 865-874.
    3. William S. Cleveland & Douglas M. Dunn & Irma J. Terpenning, 1978. "SABL: A Resistant Seasonal Adjustment Procedure With Graphical Methods for Interpretation and Diagnosis," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 201-241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Albrecht, Tobias & Rausch, Theresa Maria & Derra, Nicholas Daniel, 2021. "Call me maybe: Methods and practical implementation of artificial intelligence in call center arrivals’ forecasting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 267-278.
    5. Madden, Gary & Savage, Scott J. & Coble-Neal, Grant, 2002. "Forecasting United States-Asia international message telephone service," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 523-543.
    6. William S. Cleveland & Douglas M. Dunn & Irma J. Terpenning, 1979. "SABL: A Resistant Seasonal Adjustment Procedure with Graphical Methods for Interpretation and Diagnosis," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 201-241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. J. Daniel Khazzoom, 1981. "The Dilemma of Economic Versus Statistical Models of Energy (and Some Results of Forecasting Monthly Peak Electricity Demand Using a Transfer Function Model)," The Energy Journal, , vol. 2(3), pages 134-137, July.
    8. Liu, Lon-Mu & Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha & Sclove, Stanley L. & Chen, Rong & Lattyak, William J., 2001. "Data mining on time series: an illustration using fast-food restaurant franchise data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 455-476, October.
    9. Theresa Maria Rausch & Tobias Albrecht & Daniel Baier, 2022. "Beyond the beaten paths of forecasting call center arrivals: on the use of dynamic harmonic regression with predictor variables," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(4), pages 675-706, May.
    10. John J. Beggs, 1981. "The Demand for Telephone Services in Australia and the Welfare Implications of Alternative Pricing Policies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 584, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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