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Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica

Author

Listed:
  • Alarcón Gambarte, Samuel

    (Universidad Alberto Hurtado (Chile))

Abstract

America Latina ha experimentado un contexto de alta volatilidad en sus terminos de intercambio durante los ultimos anos. Para analizar este fenomeno, se aporta una nueva forma de modelar los precios externos, que busca capturar la incertidumbre del mercado internacional. Se construye un modelo de equilibrio general dinamico estocastico y se estima con datos de Bolivia. Finalmente, se realiza una simulacion introduciendo un shock de precios de exportacion y analizando tres escenarios diferentes: convencional, bajo shock de persistencia y bajo shock de varianza. Se analizan los mecanismos macroeconomicos de transmision ante los shocks externos y como los agentes economicos reaccionan a cambios en la incertidumbre.

Suggested Citation

  • Alarcón Gambarte, Samuel, 2019. "Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 32, pages 58-94, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1972
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics of the open economy; fluctuations and economic cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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