IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/joefas/0083.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Threshold effects of infl ation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • Thanh, Su Dinh

    (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh, Ho Chi Minh, VIETNAM)

Abstract

The relationship between inflation and economic growth is a contentious issue. The present study is undertaking to test hypothesis that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. This pane data study involves ASEAN-5 countries over the period 1980–2011. Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model is employed to estimate the threshold of inflation and its effects on economic growth. Furthermore, we also check robustness by using GMM-IV specification. The study finds that there exists a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth for the inflation rates above the threshold level of 7.84%, above which inflation starts impeding economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries. The results suggest that central banks in the ASEAN-5 countries could improve economic growth by reducing inflation when it is above or near the estimated thresholds. The threshold inflation level can be considered, therefore, as inflation targeting indicator to conduct monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Thanh, Su Dinh, 2015. "Threshold effects of infl ation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 41-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:joefas:0083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2614023
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor, 2001. "Does inflation matter for growth?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 405-428, December.
    2. Ghosh, Amit, 2014. "How do openness and exchange-rate regimes affect inflation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 190-202.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    4. Grimes, Arthur, 2006. "A smooth ride: Terms of trade, volatility and GDP growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 583-600, October.
    5. Omay, Tolga & Öznur Kan, Elif, 2010. "Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 996-1005, September.
    6. Seleteng, Monaheng & Bittencourt, Manoel & van Eyden, Reneé, 2013. "Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 149-156.
    7. Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2205-2221.
    8. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    9. Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    10. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    11. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    12. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 126-129, August.
    13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    14. Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2013. "Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-41.
    15. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    16. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    17. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    18. Bhattacharya, Rina, 2014. "Inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission in Vietnam and emerging Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 16-26.
    19. Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
    20. Ayres, Kelly & Belasen, Ariel R. & Kutan, Ali M., 2014. "Does inflation targeting lower inflation and spur growth?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-388.
    21. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    22. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 455-464, September.
    23. Jiranyakul, Komain & Opiela, Timothy P., 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 105-112, April.
    24. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
    25. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2016. "Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 332-351.
    2. Ndoricimpa Arcade, 2017. "Working Paper 249 - Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression," Working Paper Series 2359, African Development Bank.
    3. Mothuti Gosego & Phiri Andrew, 2018. "Inflation-Growth Nexus in Botswana: Can Lower Inflation Really Spur Growth in the Country?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Seleteng, Monaheng & Bittencourt, Manoel & van Eyden, Reneé, 2013. "Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 149-156.
    5. Chen, Jinzhao & Quang, Thérèse, 2014. "The impact of international financial integration on economic growth: New evidence on threshold effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 475-489.
    6. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Is Africa Different?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 599-620, October.
    7. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    8. Afi Etonam Adetou & Komlan Fiodendji, 2019. "Finance, Institutions, Remittances and Economic growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 1-4.
    9. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2009. "Conditioned Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Panel Threshold Regressions Approach," MPRA Paper 13417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Manamba EPAPHRA, 2016. "Nonlinearities in Inflation and Growth Nexus: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 471-512, September.
    12. Thouraya BOUJELBENE, 2021. "Nonlinearity Relationship of Inflation and Economic Growth: Role of Institutions Quality," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 166-179, December.
    13. Aydin, Celil & Esen, Ömer, 2018. "Does the level of energy intensity matter in the effect of energy consumption on the growth of transition economies? Evidence from dynamic panel threshold analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 185-195.
    14. Itchoko motande Mondjeli mwa ndjokou, 2015. "Too much public expenditures, less economic growt," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1985-1991.
    15. Mevlut Tatliyer, 2017. "Inflation targeting and the need for a new central banking framework," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 512-539, October.
    16. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    17. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Post-Print halshs-01318131, HAL.
    18. Chen, Jinzhao & Quang, Thérèse, 2014. "The impact of international financial integration on economic growth: New evidence on threshold effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 475-489.
    19. Erdenebat Bataa & Andrew Vivian & Mark Wohar, 2019. "Changes in the relationship between short‐term interest rate, inflation and growth: evidence from the UK, 1820–2014," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 616-640, October.
    20. Sanga,Dimitri & Gui-Diby,Steve Loris, 2020. "Inflation Threshold Levels and Economic Growth in the Franc Zone Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9405, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación; Crecimiento; Umbral de la inflación; PSTR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:joefas:0083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ESAN Ediciones (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esannpe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.