IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/jfiacr/0006.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Option Compensation and Optimistic Bias in Management’s Earnings Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Chi, Yu-Ho

    (College of Business in Accounting, University of Tennessee at Martin, USA)

  • Ziebart, David A

    (Von Allmen School of Accountancy University of Kentucky, USA)

  • Campbell, Terry

    (Department of Accounting, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University, USA)

Abstract

We examine the relation between the option compensation received by corporate managers and the extent of optimistic bias in their earnings forecasts. Specifically, we are interested in the extent to managers with a high amount of option compensation tend to have a self-serving optimism. We examine whether there is evidence consistent with the argument that managers have a self-serving interest to issue optimistic forecasts since their compensation is a function of stock price and higher earnings usually result in a higher share price. We hypothesize that management’ optimism (optimistic bias in their earnings forecasts) increases as their stock option compensation increases. Our empirical evidence indicates that highly compensated managers are associated with the likelihood of issuing upwardly biased (i.e. more optimistic) earnings forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi, Yu-Ho & Ziebart, David A & Campbell, Terry, 2019. "Option Compensation and Optimistic Bias in Management’s Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance and Accounting Research, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, vol. 1(2), pages 1-26, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jfiacr:0006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.umt.edu.pk/index.php/jfar/article/view/105
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bamber, LS & Cheon, YS, 1998. "Discretionary management earnings forecast disclosures: Antecedents and outcomes associated with forecast venue and forecast specificity choices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 167-190.
    2. Smith, Clifford Jr. & Watts, Ross L., 1992. "The investment opportunity set and corporate financing, dividend, and compensation policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 263-292, December.
    3. Nagar, Venky & Nanda, Dhananjay & Wysocki, Peter, 2003. "Discretionary disclosure and stock-based incentives," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-3), pages 283-309, January.
    4. Trueman, Brett, 1986. "Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 53-71, March.
    5. Chauvin, Keith W. & Shenoy, Catherine, 2001. "Stock price decreases prior to executive stock option grants," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 53-76, March.
    6. Yermack, David, 1995. "Do corporations award CEO stock options effectively?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 237-269.
    7. Yu-Ho Chi & David A. Ziebart, 2017. "Audit quality and attributes of management earnings forecasts," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 406-423, November.
    8. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    10. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    11. Mark H. Lang & Russell J. Lundholm, 2000. "Voluntary Disclosure and Equity Offerings: Reducing Information Asymmetry or Hyping the Stock?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 623-662, December.
    12. Yermack, David, 1997. "Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 449-476, June.
    13. Core, John E. & Holthausen, Robert W. & Larcker, David F., 1999. "Corporate governance, chief executive officer compensation, and firm performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 371-406, March.
    14. Waymire, G, 1984. "Additional Evidence On The Information-Content Of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 703-718.
    15. Penman, Sh, 1980. "An Empirical-Investigation Of The Voluntary Disclosure Of Corporate-Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 132-160.
    16. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thorsten Knauer & Christian Ledwig & Andreas Wömpener, 2012. "Zur Wertrelevanz freiwilliger Managementprognosen in Deutschland," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 166-204, March.
    2. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    3. Sam Han & Justin Yiqiang Jin & Tony Kang & Gerald Lobo, 2014. "Managerial Ownership and Financial Analysts’ Information Environment," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3-4), pages 328-362, April.
    4. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    5. Feng Gu & John Q. Li, 2007. "The Credibility of Voluntary Disclosure and Insider Stock Transactions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 771-810, September.
    6. Amy P. Hutton & Gregory S. Miller & Douglas J. Skinner, 2003. "The Role of Supplementary Statements with Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 867-890, December.
    7. Barniv, Ran, 2009. "Does foreign investor demand for information affect forecast accuracy? Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 101-118.
    8. Chen, Chao-Jung & Hsu, Chung-Yuan & Chen, Yu-Lin, 2014. "The impact of family control on the top management compensation mix and incentive orientation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-46.
    9. Yu-Lin Chen & Chao-Jung Chen, 2015. "Family firms and the incentive contracting role of accounting earnings," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 384-405, December.
    10. Ren, Siewan & Wright, Anna & Wyatt, Anne, 2012. "Stock option use by Australian IPOs," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22.
    11. Tsalavoutas, Ioannis & André, Paul & Evans, Lisa, 2012. "The transition to IFRS and the value relevance of financial statements in Greece," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 262-277.
    12. Rountree, Brian & Weston, James P. & Allayannis, George, 2008. "Do investors value smooth performance?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 237-251, December.
    13. Dee, Carol Callaway & Lulseged, Ayalew & Nowlin, Tanya S., 2005. "Executive compensation and risk: The case of internet firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 80-96, December.
    14. Elsaid, Eahab & Davidson III, Wallace N., 2009. "What happens to CEO compensation following turnover and succession?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 424-447, May.
    15. Michael J. Ho & Robert S. Harris, 2000. "Brokerage Analysts' Rationale For Investment Recommendations: Market Responses To Different Types Of Information," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 449-468, December.
    16. Beuselinck, C.A.C. & Joos, P.P.M. & Khurana, I.K. & van der Meulen, S., 2010. "Mandatory Adoption of IFRS and Analysts’ Forecasts Information Properties," Other publications TiSEM ef0de49e-ed91-4825-8b6f-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Anderson, Ronald C. & Bizjak, John M., 2003. "An empirical examination of the role of the CEO and the compensation committee in structuring executive pay," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1323-1348, July.
    18. Efendi, Jap & Srivastava, Anup & Swanson, Edward P., 2007. "Why do corporate managers misstate financial statements? The role of option compensation and other factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 667-708, September.
    19. Carver, Brian T. & Cline, Brandon N. & Hoag, Matthew L., 2013. "Underperformance of founder-led firms: An examination of compensation contracting theories during the executive stock options backdating scandal," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 294-310.
    20. Beng Soon Chong & Kim Wai Ho, 2007. "Lockup and Voluntary Earnings Forecast Disclosure in IPOs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 63-80, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Management earnings forecast; Forecast error; Optimistic bias; Option compensation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:jfiacr:0006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Syed Mughees Ul Hassan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbumtpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.