IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0001.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Approaches to Country Risk Analysis and Early Warning

Author

Listed:
  • Carment, David

    (Carlton university,The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs)

  • Samy, Yiagadeeesen

    (Carlton university,The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs)

  • Prest, Stewart

    (Carlton university,The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs)

Abstract

This article lays out a framework for country risk analysis and early warning drawing on the methodologies developed by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project (CIFP – www.carleton.ca/cifp). Special attention is given to the identifi cation of failed and fragile states using the CIFP state fragility index, and how the latter compares to other such indices. The rest of the paper proceeds in four parts. In the second section, we provide some concepts and defi nitions as they relate to early warning, state failure and country risk. The third section assesses structural risk indicators and events based monitoring methodologies. The fourth section provides a comparative ranking of countries, some initial fi ndings and results for the Middle East and North Africa. The fi fth and fi nal section concludes by discussing the policy implications of the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Carment, David & Samy, Yiagadeeesen & Prest, Stewart, 2009. "Approaches to Country Risk Analysis and Early Warning," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 297-323.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iei1946.it/RePEc/ccg/CARMENT%20ET%20AL%20297_323.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torres, Magui Moreno & Anderson, Michael, 2004. "Fragile States: Defining Difficult Environments For Poverty Reduction," PRDE Working Papers 12822, Department for International Development (DFID) (UK).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carment, David & Landry, Joe & Samy, Yiagadeesen & Shaw, Scott, 2015. "State Transitions for the Middle East and North Africa Region: A Structural Assessment Using the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Framework - Le transizioni delle regioni medio-orientali e del No," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(1), pages 57-79.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghassan Baliki & Tilman Brück & Neil T. N. Ferguson & Sindu Workneh Kebede, 2022. "Fragility exposure index: Concepts, measurement, and application," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 639-660, May.
    2. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    3. Mark McGillivray, 2006. "Aid Allocation and Fragile States," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2006-01, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    5. Cortney S. Rodet, 2016. "Social Order in a Fragile State: Rio's Favelas," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 309-317, October.
    6. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Alexander Cotte, Poveda, 2011. "Economic development and growth in Colombia: An empirical analysis with super-efficiency DEA and panel data models," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 154-164, December.
    8. Davide Natalini & Aled Wynne Jones & Giangiacomo Bravo, 2015. "Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, April.
    9. David Carment & Yiagadeesen Samy & Stewart Prest, 2008. "State Fragility and Implications for Aid Allocation: An Empirical Analysis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(4), pages 349-373, September.
    10. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 2009. "State fragility and economic vulnerability: What is measured and why?," Working Papers P07, FERDI.
    11. Baliki, Ghassan & Brück, Tilman & Ferguson, Neil T.N. & Kebede, Sindu W., 2017. "Micro-Foundations of Fragility: Concepts, Measurement and Application," IZA Discussion Papers 11188, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Eric Afful-Dadzie & Stephen Nabareseh & Anthony Afful-Dadzie & Zuzana Oplatková, 2015. "A fuzzy TOPSIS framework for selecting fragile states for support facility," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 1835-1855, September.
    13. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz & Mark McGillivray, 2008. "State Fragility: Concept and Measurement," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-44, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Selver B. Sahin, 2014. "Timor-Leste’s Foreign Policy: Securing State Identity in the Post-Independence Period," Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 33(2), pages 3-25.
    15. Ali AbolAli Aghdaci & Mohammad Reza Mayeli, 2018. "Analysis of social capital and political development in Iran under the Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad governments," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 249-270, September.
    16. Fenta Mandefro & Mina Noor & Nora Stel, 2011. "Service Delivery and State Legitimacy: Multi-Stakeholder Processes in Water and Sanitation in Ethiopia," Working Papers 2011/37, Maastricht School of Management.
    17. Fenta Mandefro & Mina Noor & Nora Stel, 2012. "Service Delivery and State Legitimacy: Multi-Stakeholder Processes in Water and Sanitation in Ethiopia As defined by the," Working Papers 2012/44, Maastricht School of Management.
    18. Boris Branisa & Carolina Cardona, 2015. "Social Institutions and Gender Inequality in Fragile States: Are They Relevant for the Post-MDG Debate?," Southern Voice Occasional Paper 21, Southern Voice.
    19. Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 2011. "State fragility and economic vulnerability: what is measured and why?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00554284, HAL.
    20. Anderson, Michael & Branchflower, Andrew & Moreno-Torres, Magui & Besancon, Marie, 2005. "Measuring Capacity And Willingness For Poverty Reduction In Fragile States," PRDE Working Papers 12820, Department for International Development (DFID) (UK).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fragile States; Failed States; Conflict; Indicators; Early Warning; Risk Analysis; CIFP; Middle East; Yemen; Iraq; OECD; Development Assistance; Military Intervention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.