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State Transitions for the Middle East and North Africa Region: A Structural Assessment Using the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Framework - Le transizioni delle regioni medio-orientali e del Nord Africa: una valutazione strutturale con l’utilizzo degli indicatori paese per la politica estera

Author

Listed:
  • Carment, David

    (CENTRE FOR GLOBAL COOPERATION RESEARCH)

  • Landry, Joe

    (NORMAN PATERSON SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS CARLETON UNIVERSITY)

  • Samy, Yiagadeesen

    (NORMAN PATERSON SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS CARLETON UNIVERSITY)

  • Shaw, Scott

    (NORMAN PATERSON SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS CARLETON UNIVERSITY)

Abstract

Using the framework developed by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project (www.carleton.ca/cifp), this paper examines state transitions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. While previous studies have found legitimacy to be a particular concern across the region, our most recent data confirms that legitimacy remains a key issue, even if it has improved since the Arab Spring which began in late 2010. We complement this regional analysis by examining the structural characteristics of three countries – Algeria, Libya, Yemen – using CIFP’s ALC framework to understand the evolution of state transitions pre- and post-Arab Spring. This examination reveals significant differences in the evolution of the characteristics of ‘stateness’ across the various cases. - Le transizioni delle regioni medio-orientali e del Nord Africa: una valutazione strutturale con l’utilizzo degli indicatori paese per la politica estera Applicando il modello sviluppato dal progetto CIFP (Country Indicators for Foreign Policy), questo lavoro esamina i cambiamenti negli stati delle regioni medio-orientali e del Nord Africa. Studi precedenti riscontravano che la legittimazione era un problema cruciale nella regione: i nostri dati più aggiornati confermano che essa rimane un questione chiave, anche se ci sono stati miglioramenti da quando la Primavera Araba è cominciata, cioè a fine 2010. Questa indagine regionale è completata dall’esame delle caratteristiche strutturali di tre paesi – Algeria, Libia, Yemen – attraverso il modello ALC del Country Indicators for Foreign Policy, al fine di capire l’evoluzione dei cambiamenti in atto in questi paesi prima e dopo la Primavera Araba. Da questo esame emergono differenze significative nell’evoluzione delle caratteristiche della “statualità” tra i diversi paesi.

Suggested Citation

  • Carment, David & Landry, Joe & Samy, Yiagadeesen & Shaw, Scott, 2015. "State Transitions for the Middle East and North Africa Region: A Structural Assessment Using the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Framework - Le transizioni delle regioni medio-orientali e del No," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(1), pages 57-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0746
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    2. Carment, David & Samy, Yiagadeeesen & Prest, Stewart, 2009. "Approaches to Country Risk Analysis and Early Warning," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 297-323.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Algeria; Arab Spring; CIFP; Fragile States; Libya; Middle East and North Africa; State Fragility; State Transitions; Yemen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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