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An Econometric Macroeconomic Model for Analysis and Forecasting of Key Indicators of the Belarusian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Kravtsov, Mikhail
  • Burdyka, Mikalai
  • Haspadarets, Burdyka
  • Shynkevich, Natallia
  • Kartun, Andrei

Abstract

Results of econometric modeling of the Belarusian economy are presented in the article. The methodology of building macromodel for analysis and forecasting of main indicators is described. Estimations of the effects of a rise in oil and gas prices on the key economic indicators are given. The consequences of different scenarios of development of Belarusian economy in 2008 are obtained by simulation

Suggested Citation

  • Kravtsov, Mikhail & Burdyka, Mikalai & Haspadarets, Burdyka & Shynkevich, Natallia & Kartun, Andrei, 2008. "An Econometric Macroeconomic Model for Analysis and Forecasting of Key Indicators of the Belarusian Economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 10(2), pages 21-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brodsky, Boris, 2006. "The Influence of the Ruble Real Exchange Rate on the Russian Economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 4(4), pages 90-104.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Empirical modeling of money demand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 295-315.
    3. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova , Svetlana & Kharin, Yuriy & Malugin, Vladimir & Huryn , Aliaksandr & Raskina, Julia, 2006. "On Building Economic Development Patterns for Russia and Belorussia on the Basis of LAM-3 Econometric Model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 2(2), pages 124-139.
    4. Aivazian, Sergei & Brodsky, Boris, 2006. "Macroeconometric modeling: modern trends, problems, an example of the econometric model of the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 2(2), pages 85-111.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric modeling; macromodel; oil and gas prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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