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Persistance du chômage et insertion

Author

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  • Allaire, Gilles

    (NRA ESR (ETIQ), Toulouse)

  • Cahuzac, Éric

    (NRA ESR (ETIQ), Toulouse)

  • Tahar, Gabriel

    (CNRS (LIRHE))

Abstract

We use detailed survey data from 1986 to analyze 1565 trajectories over 7 years of outgoing individuals with low levels of education to study the effect of a period of unemployment (or inactivity) on the probability of being unemployed (or inactive) a second time. A robust technique and an original statistical treatment of the overlapping problems enables us to test stylized effects on the trajectories. We highlight the predictive character of unemployment at the beginning of one's active work life. We also find evidence that people encounter unemployment but retain a certain probability of insertion as opposed to stronger exclusion from the workforce at the end of the period. This patter is in contrast to unemployment at the beginning of the period which is found to be somewhat random. Finally the quality of first employment appears to be a determinant of the persistence of unemployment, since those who are "better" inserted seem to be protected from spells of repeated unemployment. According to the geographic location of first employment, we show that the risk of repeated unemployment is lower in the countryside relative to urban areas. Partant de données individuelles riches sur les trajectoires de 1 565 individus sortants de bas niveaux scolaires en 1986, nous étudions ici l’effet d’un passage en chômage (ou en inactivité) sur la probabilité de connaître de nouveau du chômage (ou de l’inactivité). Une technique robuste et un traitement original des problèmes de chevauchement nous permet de tester certains effets stylisés sur les trajectoires. Nous soulignons le caractère prédictif du chômage en début de vie active. Nous distinguons également un chômage plutôt d’exclusion en fin de période à opposer au chômage plutôt aléatoire de début de période. Enfin la qualité de l’insertion paraît déterminante dans la persistance du chômage, puisque les « mieux » insérés semblent protégés du chômage répété. Une distinction selon la zone du premier emploi montre des risques de chômage moins forts à la campagne.

Suggested Citation

  • Allaire, Gilles & Cahuzac, Éric & Tahar, Gabriel, 2000. "Persistance du chômage et insertion," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(2), pages 237-263, juin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:76:y:2000:i:2:p:237-263
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    1. Avery, Robert B & Hansen, Lars Peter & Hotz, V Joseph, 1983. "Multiperiod Probit Models and Orthogonality Condition Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 21-35, February.
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