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L’incidence du salaire minimum sur le marché du travail des adolescents au Canada : une reconsidération des résultats empiriques

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  • Grenier, Gilles

    (Département de science économique, Université d’Ottawa)

  • Séguin, Marc

    (Ministère des Finances, Ottawa)

Abstract

One of the least controversial issues in economic theory is the prediction that the imposition of a minimum wage has a negative impact on employment. Empirical studies performed during the seventies and the early eighties have confirmed the presence of that impact, especially among teenagers. Since the mid-seventies, however, minimum wages in Canada have changed very little and have even decreased in real terms. This should have had a favourable effect on employment. The purpose of this study is to see if the minimum wage still has the same negative effect on the labour market of teenagers in Canada during the period 1976-1988. To that effect, a model similar to those of the previous empirical studies is estimated. The results are different from those of the earlier studies: the minimum wage index is no longer significant in the estimated regressions. This suggests that the influence of the minimum wage on the labour market of teenagers is weaker than it used to be or, at least, that it is more uncertain. Possible explanations of the observed changes are discussed. Some are related to the data and to the way certain variables of the model are measured, while others pertain to the theoretical relationships among those variables. Un des résultats les moins controversés de la théorie économique est la prédiction que l’imposition d’un salaire minimum a des effets néfastes sur l’emploi. Des études empiriques réalisées dans les années soixante-dix et au début des années quatre-vingt ont confirmé la présence de ces effets, surtout chez les adolescents. Par ailleurs, depuis le milieu des années soixante-dix, le salaire minimum au Canada a très peu augmenté et a même baissé en termes réels, ce qui aurait dû affecter l’emploi favorablement. Le but de cette étude est de tenter de vérifier si le salaire minimum a toujours le même impact négatif sur le marché du travail des adolescents au Canada durant la période 1976-1988. À cette fin, nous estimons un modèle semblable à ceux des études antérieures. Les résultats sont différents de ceux de ces études : l’indice du salaire minimum n’est pas significatif dans les régressions estimées. Il semblerait donc que le salaire minimum ait un impact plus faible, ou du moins plus incertain, que par le passé. Quelques explications possibles aux changements observés sont suggérées. Certaines ont trait aux données utilisées et à la façon de mesurer les variables du modèle, alors que d’autres se rapportent aux relations théoriques entre ces variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Grenier, Gilles & Séguin, Marc, 1991. "L’incidence du salaire minimum sur le marché du travail des adolescents au Canada : une reconsidération des résultats empiriques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 67(2), pages 123-143, juin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:67:y:1991:i:2:p:123-143
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    1. Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June.
    2. André Blais & Jean-Michel Cousineau & Kenneth McRoberts, 1989. "The determinants of minimum wage rates," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 15-24, July.
    3. Brown, Charles, 1988. "Minimum Wage Laws: Are They Overrated?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 133-145, Summer.
    4. Walter Block & Michael A. Walker, 1988. "Entropy in the Canadian Economics Profession: Sampling Consensus on the Major Issues," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 14(2), pages 137-150, June.
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    1. Dany Brouillette & Calista Cheung & Daniel Gao & Olivier Gervais, 2017. "The Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on the Canadian Economy," Staff Analytical Notes 17-26, Bank of Canada.
    2. Michael T. Shannon & Charles M. Beach, 1995. "Distributional Employment Effects of Ontario Minimum-Wage Proposals: A Microdata Approach," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 21(3), pages 284-303, September.
    3. Gilbert Cette & Philippe Cuneo & Didier Eyssartier & Jérôme Gautié, 1996. "Coût du travail et emploi des jeunes," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 56(1), pages 45-72.
    4. Terence Yuen, 2003. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Youth Employment in Canada: A Panel Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(3).

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