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Les effets Balassa-Samuelson peuvent-ils expliquer la dynamique de l’économie Tunisienne?

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  • El Ferktaji, Riadh

    (UR-ECOFI, IHEC)

  • Mihoubi, Ferhat

    (Université d’Evry Val d’Essonne, EPEE)

Abstract

We show that Balassa-Samuelson effects are at work to explain the evolution of the real exchange rate in Tunisia. To reproduce the main stylized facts (appreciation of the real exchange rate, wage moderation and inflation inertia), we build a two sectors (tradable and non tradable) dynamic general equilibrium model that embodies, within a monopolistic competition framework, wage bargaining and nominal price rigidities. This model is able to explain the dynamic of the real exchange rate and of the main macroeconomics variables. The real exchange rate drop during 1986-1988 may be reproduced by a negative world demand shock and wage stability during the structural adjustment program. The real exchange rate appreciation during the following 1989-2003 period may account for the productivity earning in the tradable sector and by the lifting of European quotas in the textile industry. Résumé : Pour rendre compte des chocs qui ont affecté l’économie tunisienne durant les 20 dernières années, nous montrons dans un premier temps que des effets Balassa-Samuelson sont à l’oeuvre. Afin de reproduire les principaux faits stylisés, le modèle dynamique d’équilibre général bisectoriel (exposé et abrité) construit comporte, dans un contexte de concurrence monopolistique, des négociations salariales en présence d’une parfaite mobilité intersectorielle du travail et des rigidités nominales sur les prix. Ce modèle permet d’expliquer l’évolution du taux de change réel et des principaux agrégats. La forte dépréciation du taux de change réel en 1986-1988 peut être reproduite par un choc négatif de demande mondiale et par une modération salariale durant le programme d’ajustement structurel. L’appréciation du taux de change réel qui a suivi serait pour sa part la conséquence de gains de productivité dans le secteur exposé et de la levée des quotas européens sur le textile.

Suggested Citation

  • El Ferktaji, Riadh & Mihoubi, Ferhat, 2009. "Les effets Balassa-Samuelson peuvent-ils expliquer la dynamique de l’économie Tunisienne?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(1), pages 77-117, mars.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0003
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