IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfe/zbefri/v35y2017i2p301-330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of intraday weather changes on asset returns and volatilities

Author

Listed:
  • Hyein Shim

    (Korea Public Finance Information Service, Metrotower 10, Toegye-ro, Jung-gu, Seoul, 04637, Republic of Korea)

  • Maria H. Kim

    (University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia)

  • Doojin Ryu

    (Sungkyunkwan University, College of Economics, 25-2, Sungkyunkwan-ro,Jongno-gu, Seoul 03063, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

Analyzing the intraday dataset on weather and market information with the use of the extended GJR-GARCH framework, this study explores in depth the weather effects on the asset returns and volatilities of the Korean stock and derivatives markets. Our intraday analyses contribute to the existing literature by going beyond the attempt of prior studies to capture the weather effects using the average daily observations alone. The empirical results document a modest presence of the weather effect on the returns and volatilities, though the significance of its impact is found to vary across different market conditions and indices. We also find that the return and volatility respond asymmetrically to extremely good and bad weather conditions. The intraday analyses show that the weather effect on the returns and volatilities is more statistically significant at the beginning of the working day or the lunch break, indicating the intraday weather effects on the financial market.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyein Shim & Maria H. Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2017. "Effects of intraday weather changes on asset returns and volatilities," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 301-330.
  • Handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:35:y:2017:i:2:p:301-330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.efri.uniri.hr/sites/efri.uniri.hr/files/cr-collections/2/10-shim-kim-2017-2-1513970131.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabio Pizzutilo & Valeria Roncone, 2017. "Red sky at night or in the morning, to the equity market neither a delight nor a warning: the weather effect re-examined using intraday stock data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1280-1310, November.
    2. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
    3. William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2005. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 559-578, November.
    4. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Daskalakis, George & Markellos, Raphael N., 2010. "Does the weather affect stock market volatility?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 214-223, December.
    5. Chang, Tsangyao & Nieh, Chien-Chung & Yang, Ming Jing & Yang, Tse-Yu, 2006. "Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 343-354.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    7. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    8. Chung, Kee H. & Park, Seongkyu “Gilbert” & Ryu, Doojin, 2016. "Trade duration, informed trading, and option moneyness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 395-411.
    9. Doowon Ryu & Doojin Ryu & Joon Ho Hwang, 2017. "Corporate governance, product-market competition, and stock returns: evidence from the Korean market," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 50-91, April.
    10. Myounghwa Sim & Doojin Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2016. "Tests on the Monotonicity Properties of KOSPI 200 Options Prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 625-646, July.
    11. Park, Sung Y. & Ryu, Doojin & Song, Jeongseok, 2017. "The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 638-648.
    12. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    13. Heejin Yang & Hyung‐Suk Choi & Doojin Ryu, 2017. "Option Market Characteristics and Price Monotonicity Violations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 473-498, May.
    14. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    15. Doojin Ryu, 2011. "Intraday price formation and bid–ask spread components: A new approach using a cross‐market model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(12), pages 1142-1169, December.
    16. Kramer, Walter & Runde, Ralf, 1997. "Stocks and the Weather: An Exercise in Data Mining or Yet Another Capital Market Anomaly?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 637-641.
    17. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2010. "The Political Economy of the US Mortgage Default Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1967-1998, December.
    18. Hee‐Joon Ahn & Jangkoo Kang & Doojin Ryu, 2008. "Informed trading in the index option market: The case of KOSPI 200 options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(12), pages 1118-1146, December.
    19. Jieun Lee & Doojin Ryu & Ali M. Kutan, 2016. "Monetary Policy Announcements, Communication, and Stock Market Liquidity," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 227-250, September.
    20. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2007. "Daily weather effects on the returns of Australian stock indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 173-184.
    21. Hyein Shim & Hyeyoen Kim & Junyeup Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2015. "Weather and stock market volatility: the case of a leading emerging market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 987-992, August.
    22. Ben David Nissim & Levkovitch Liran & Skalka Eshel, 2012. "Do natural phenomena affect stocks’ yield in Israel?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 127-133, January.
    23. Lu, Jing & Chou, Robin K., 2012. "Does the weather have impacts on returns and trading activities in order-driven stock markets? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-93.
    24. Cornett, Marcia Millon & McNutt, Jamie John & Strahan, Philip E. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2011. "Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 297-312, August.
    25. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    26. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin & Seo, Sung Won, 2014. "Investor sentiment and return predictability of disagreement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 166-178.
    27. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    28. Song, Wonho & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2016. "Overseas market shocks and VKOSPI dynamics: A Markov-switching approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 275-282.
    29. Stephen P. Keef & Melvin L. Roush, 2007. "A meta‐analysis of the international evidence of cloud cover on stock returns," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(3), pages 324-338, August.
    30. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2005. "Weather, biorhythms, beliefs and stock returns--Some preliminary Irish evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 337-355.
    31. Kang, Sang Hoon & Jiang, Zhuhua & Lee, Yeonjeong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2010. "Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 91-99.
    32. Chang, Shao-Chi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Yueh-Hsiang, 2008. "Weather and intraday patterns in stock returns and trading activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1754-1766, September.
    33. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Forecasting the KOSPI200 spot volatility using various volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 156-166.
    2. Sang Ik Seok & Hoon Cho & Chanhi Park & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "Do Overnight Returns Truly Measure Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment in the KOSPI Market?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Tomasz Schabek & Bojana Olgiæ Draženoviæ & Davor Mance, 2019. "Reaction of Zagreb Stock Exchange CROBEX Index to macroeconomic announcements within a high frequency time interval," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 741-758.
    4. Karam KIM & Doojin RYU, 2020. "Predictive ability of investor sentiment for the stock market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 33-46, December.
    5. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    6. Daehyeon PARK & Doojin RYU, 2021. "Forecasting Stock Market Dynamics using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 22-34, June.
    7. Daehyeon Park & Jiyeon Park & Doojin Ryu, 2020. "Volatility Spillovers between Equity and Green Bond Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.
    8. Zhuhua Jiang & Sang Hoon Kang & Chongcheul Cheong & Seong-Min Yoon, 2019. "The Effects of Extreme Weather Conditions on Hong Kong and Shenzhen Stock Market Returns," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-14, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nils Muhlack & Christian Soost & Christian Johannes Henrich, 2022. "Does Weather Still Affect The Stock Market?," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 74(1), pages 1-35, March.
    2. Muhammad Fayyaz Sheikh & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah & Shahid Mahmood, 2017. "Weather Effects on Stock Returns and Volatility in South Asian Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 24(2), pages 75-107, June.
    3. Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Stock returns and investors' mood: Good day sunshine or spurious correlation?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 94-103.
    4. Filiz, Ibrahim & Nahmer, Thomas & Spiwoks, Markus, 2019. "Herd behavior and mood: An experimental study on the forecasting of share prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    5. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    6. Nicholas Apergis & Alexandros Gabrielsen & Lee Smales, 2016. "(Unusual) weather and stock returns—I am not in the mood for mood: further evidence from international markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(1), pages 63-94, February.
    7. Chatterjee, Sucharita & Ghosh, Dipak, 2021. "Impact of Global Warming on SENSEX fluctuations — A study based on Multifractal detrended cross correlation analysis between the temperature anomalies and the SENSEX fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 571(C).
    8. Andrew Worthington, 2009. "An Empirical Note on Weather Effects in the Australian Stock Market," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 28(2), pages 148-154, June.
    9. Lu, Jing & Chou, Robin K., 2012. "Does the weather have impacts on returns and trading activities in order-driven stock markets? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-93.
    10. Daehyeon PARK & Doojin RYU, 2021. "Forecasting Stock Market Dynamics using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 22-34, June.
    11. Yoon, Seong-Min & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2009. "Weather effects on returns: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(5), pages 682-690.
    12. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Forecasting the KOSPI200 spot volatility using various volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 156-166.
    13. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Jhang, Ling-Jhen & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2016. "Do investor sentiment, weather and catastrophe effects improve hedging performance? Evidence from the Taiwan options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 35-51.
    14. Sang Ik Seok & Hoon Cho & Chanhi Park & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "Do Overnight Returns Truly Measure Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment in the KOSPI Market?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-14, July.
    15. Shahzad, Farrukh, 2019. "Does weather influence investor behavior, stock returns, and volatility? Evidence from the Greater China region," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 525-543.
    16. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Kang, Sang Hoon & Jiang, Zhuhua & Lee, Yeonjeong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2010. "Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 91-99.
    18. Mamatzakis, E, 2013. "Does weather affect US bank loan efficiency?," MPRA Paper 51616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Waldemar Tarczyński & Urszula Mentel & Grzegorz Mentel & Umer Shahzad, 2021. "The Influence of Investors’ Mood on the Stock Prices: Evidence from Energy Firms in Warsaw Stock Exchange, Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-25, November.
    20. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset returns; behavioral finance; GJR-GARCH; intraday analyses; weather effect; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:35:y:2017:i:2:p:301-330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Danijela Ujcic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efrijhr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.