IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfa/aefjnl/v7y2020i4p48-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Socioeconomic Well-Being Index

Author

Listed:
  • A. Alexandre Trindade
  • Abootaleb Shirvani
  • Xiaohan Ma

Abstract

An annual well-being index constructed from thirteen socioeconomic factors is proposed in order to dynamically measure the mood of the US citizenry. Econometric models are fitted to the log-returns of the index in order to quantify its tail risk and perform option pricing and risk budgeting. By providing a statistically sound assessment of socioeconomic contentment, the index is consistent with rational finance theory, enabling the construction and valuation of insurance-type financial instruments to serve as contracts written against it. Endogenously, the VXO volatility measure of the stock market appears to be the greatest contributor to tail risk. Exogenously, “stress-testing” the index against the politically important factors of trade imbalance and legal immigration, quantify the systemic risk. For probability levels in the range of 5% to 10%, values of trade below these thresholds are associated with larger downward movements of the index than for immigration at the same level. The main intent of the index is to serve as an early-warning mechanism for negative changes in the mood of citizens, thus alerting policy makers and private agents to potential future market downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Alexandre Trindade & Abootaleb Shirvani & Xiaohan Ma, 2020. "A Socioeconomic Well-Being Index," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 48-62, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:7:y:2020:i:4:p:48-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/download/4855/5023
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/4855
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Till Massing, 2019. "What is the best Lévy model for stock indices? A comparative study with a view to time consistency," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(3), pages 277-344, September.
    2. Krueger, Alan B. (ed.), 2009. "Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226454566.
    3. Christophe Chorro & Dominique Gu�gan & Florian Ielpo, 2012. "Option pricing for GARCH-type models with generalized hyperbolic innovations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 1079-1094, April.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    5. Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell & Paul Frijters, 2004. "How Important is Methodology for the estimates of the determinants of Happiness?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 641-659, July.
    6. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2004. "Well-being over time in Britain and the USA," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1359-1386, July.
    7. Girardi, Giulio & Tolga Ergün, A., 2013. "Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3169-3180.
    8. Krueger, Alan B. (ed.), 2009. "Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226454573.
    9. Jin‐Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32, January.
    10. Almira Biglova & Sergio Ortobelli & Frank J Fabozzi, 2014. "Portfolio selection in the presence of systemic risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(5), pages 285-299, October.
    11. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 1997. "Processes of normal inverse Gaussian type," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 41-68.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abootaleb Shirvani, 2020. "Stock Returns and Roughness Extreme Variations: A New Model for Monitoring 2008 Market Crash and 2015 Flash Crash," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 78-95, May.
    2. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2021. "Global Index on Financial Losses due to Crime in the United States," Papers 2105.03514, arXiv.org.
    3. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2022. "A Natural Disasters Index," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(2), pages 263-284, April.
    4. Thilini V. Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2020. "A Natural Disasters Index," Papers 2008.03672, arXiv.org.
    5. Kasun Chandrarathna & Arman Edalati & AhmadReza Fourozan tabar, 2020. "Forecasting Short-term load using Econometrics time series model with T-student Distribution," Papers 2009.13595, arXiv.org.
    6. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar T. Rachev, 2021. "Global Index on Financial Losses Due to Crime in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2022. "A Natural Disasters Index," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(2), pages 263-284, April.
    2. Thilini V. Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2023. "The Financial Market of Indices of Socioeconomic Wellbeing," Papers 2303.05654, arXiv.org.
    3. Thilini V. Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2020. "A Natural Disasters Index," Papers 2008.03672, arXiv.org.
    4. Andreas Knabe & Steffen Rätzel & Ronnie Schöb & Joachim Weimann, 2010. "Dissatisfied with Life but Having a Good Day: Time-use and Well-being of the Unemployed," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(547), pages 867-889, September.
    5. Stefano Bartolini & Ennio Bilancini & Francesco Sarracino, 2013. "Predicting the Trend of Well-Being in Germany: How Much Do Comparisons, Adaptation and Sociability Matter?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 169-191, November.
    6. Jeffrey R. Bloem & Andrew J. Oswald, 2022. "The Analysis of Human Feelings: A Practical Suggestion for a Robustness Test," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(3), pages 689-710, September.
    7. Fernanda Marquez-Padilla & Jorge Alvarez, 2018. "Grading happiness: what grading systems tell us about cross-country wellbeing comparisons," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1138-1155.
    8. Jiri Zuzanek & Tamara Zuzanek, 2015. "Of Happiness and of Despair, Is There a Measure? Time Use and Subjective Well-being," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 839-856, August.
    9. Di Tella, Rafael & Haisken-De New, John & MacCulloch, Robert, 2010. "Happiness adaptation to income and to status in an individual panel," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 834-852, December.
    10. Andreas Knabe & Ronnie Schöb & Joachim Weimann, 2016. "Partnership, Gender, and the Well-Being Cost of Unemployment," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 1255-1275, December.
    11. Frijters, Paul & Clark, Andrew E. & Krekel, Christian & Layard, Richard, 2020. "A happy choice: wellbeing as the goal of government," Behavioural Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 126-165, July.
    12. David G. Blanchflower, 2021. "Is happiness U-shaped everywhere? Age and subjective well-being in 145 countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 575-624, April.
    13. Beja Jr, Edsel, 2012. "Who is happier: Housewife or working wife?," MPRA Paper 40533, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Diane Coyle & Leonard Nakamura, 2022. "Time Use, Productivity, and Household-centric Measurement of Welfare in the Digital Economy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 42, pages 165-186, Spring.
    15. Stutzer, Alois & Frey, Bruno S., 2012. "Recent Developments in the Economics of Happiness: A Selective Overview," IZA Discussion Papers 7078, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Pang, Xiaochuan & Zhu, Shushang & Cui, Xueting & Ma, Jiali, 2023. "Systemic risk of optioned portfolio: Controllability and optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    17. Erik Angner, 2011. "Current Trends in Welfare Measurement," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Barbara Dluhosch & Daniel Horgos, 2013. "Trading Up the Happiness Ladder," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 973-990, September.
    19. Gabriela Flores & Michael Ingenhaag & Jürgen Maurer, 2013. "Healthy, wealthy, wise, and happy? An exploratory analysis of the interplay between aging and subjective well-being in low and middle income countries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 13.13, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    20. Christopher Mackie & Conal Smith, 2015. "Conceptualizing Subjective Well-Being And Its Many Dimensions – Implications For Data Collection In Official Statistics And For Policy Relevance," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 335-372, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:7:y:2020:i:4:p:48-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Redfame publishing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.