IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfa/aefjnl/v3y2016i3p222-235.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bank Failure Prediction Model for Zimbabwe

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Gumbo
  • Simba Zoromedza

Abstract

Probability of Default (PD) is a financial term describing the likelihood of default over a particular time horizon. This concept has attracted a lot of interest ever since the late 1960¡¯s and has been extended to the banking sector to predict probability of failure as well as bank performance ratings. We derive the probability of bankruptcy and bank ratings in a Zimbabwean context based on data between 2009 and 2013, inclusive. We build a model to predict the probability of bank failure twelve months in advance for Zimbabwean banks based on twelve micro factors. Further, we build the corresponding rating model. The empirical analysis revealed that the warning signal so developed produced a robust result with a high prediction accuracy of 92.31% compared to 60% of the Altman¡¯s Z Score model.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Gumbo & Simba Zoromedza, 2016. "Bank Failure Prediction Model for Zimbabwe," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 222-235, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:3:y:2016:i:3:p:222-235
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/1639/1677
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/1639
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galai, Dan & Masulis, Ronald W., 1976. "The option pricing model and the risk factor of stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 53-81.
    2. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, 1998. "Bank Capitalization And Cost: Evidence Of Scale Economies In Risk Management And Signaling," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 314-325, May.
    3. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    4. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Ms. Claudia H Dziobek, 1997. "Lessons From Systemic Bank Restructuring: A Survey of 24 Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/161, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ellis, David M. & Flannery, Mark J., 1992. "Does the debt market assess large banks, risk? : Time series evidence from money center CDs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 481-502, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cinderella Dube & Victor Gumbo, 2017. "Adoption and Use of Information Communication Technologies in Zimbabwean Supermarkets," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 84-92, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. El Moussawi, Chawki & Mansour, Rana, 2022. "Competition, cost efficiency and stability of banks in the MENA region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 143-170.
    2. Masami Imai, 2009. "Political Influence and Declarations of Bank Insolvency in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 131-158, February.
    3. Man K. Leung & Trevor Young & Michael K. Fung, 2008. "The entry and exit decisions of foreign banks in Hong Kong," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 503-512.
    4. Rym Ayadi & Emrah Arbak & Willem Pieter De Groen, 2012. "Executive Compensation and Risk-taking in European Banking," Chapters, in: James R. Barth & Chen Lin & Clas Wihlborg (ed.), Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    6. Stijn Claesens & Simeon Djankov & Ashoka Mody, 2001. "Resolution of Financial Distress : An International Perspective on the Design of Bankruptcy Laws," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14029.
    7. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    8. Kerstens, Kristiaan & Van de Woestyne, Ignace, 2014. "Comparing Malmquist and Hicks–Moorsteen productivity indices: Exploring the impact of unbalanced vs. balanced panel data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 749-758.
    9. Awdeh, Ali & Salloum, Ahmad & El Hokayem, Elie, 2013. "Measuring the Degree of Competition in the Arab Banking Systems," MPRA Paper 119122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Inanoglu, Hulusi & Jacobs, Michael, Jr. & Liu, Junrong & Sickles, Robin, 2015. "Analyzing Bank Efficiency: Are "Too-Big-to-Fail" Banks Efficient?," Working Papers 15-016, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    11. Ly, Kim Cuong & Liu, Hong & Opong, Kwaku, 2017. "Who acquires whom among stand-alone commercial banks and bank holding company affiliates?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 144-158.
    12. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Pensa, Pascal & Wöhle, Claudia B., 2004. "Kapitalstrukturtheorie in Theorie und Praxis: Ergebnisse einer Fragebogenuntersuchung," Working papers 2004/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    13. Agliardi, Elettra & Andergassen, Rainer, 2009. "Last resort gambles, risky debt and liquidation policy," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 142-155, August.
    14. Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2010. "Assessing bank efficiency and performance with operational research and artificial intelligence techniques: A survey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(2), pages 189-198, July.
    15. Flannery, Mark J. & Kwan, Simon H. & Nimalendran, Mahendrarajah, 2013. "The 2007–2009 financial crisis and bank opaqueness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-84.
    16. Nazmoon Akhter, 2021. "Assessing the Relationship between Efficiency, Capital and Risk of Commercial Banks in Bangladesh," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(1), pages 1-55, July.
    17. R. Raymond Sant & Stephen B. Carter, 2015. "Acquired Credit Unions: Drivers of Takeover," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(8), pages 18-33, August.
    18. Opiela, Timothy P., 2004. "Was there an implicit full guarantee at financial institutions in Thailand? Evidence of risk pricing by depositors," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 519-541, September.
    19. Kočenda, Evžen & Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2020. "Bank survival in Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 860-878.
    20. Vygodina, Anna V. & Zorn, Thomas S. & DeFusco, Richard, 2008. "Asymmetry in the effects of economic fundamentals on rising and falling exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 728-746, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bankruptcy; early warning systems; bank failure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:3:y:2016:i:3:p:222-235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Redfame publishing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.