Análisis multiescalar de la burbuja inmobiliaria y los desahucios: La Comunidad Autónoma de Euskadi en el contexto estatal y europeo

RESUMEN:Este artículo aborda el boom inmobiliario, su colapso y las consecuencias que de todo ello se derivan, particularmente, las ejecuciones hipotecarias y los desahucios, tratando el análisis desde una triple vertiente de escala: la europea, la española y la de la Comunidad Autonoma de Euskadi. En la primera parte del artículo, se realiza un ejercicio de definición de los factores determinantes del riesgo de impago y embargo desde el contexto de los regímenes de bienestar europeos. Posteriormente, a escala estatal y vasca, se estudian la evolución de la burbuja y su posterior pinchazo, y la dramática escalada de ejecuciones y desahucios que suceden a dicha evolución. Asimismo, se pone especial atención a la forma en que los diferentes gobiernos están respondiendo a esta crisis, y se concluye que a nivel estatal las respuestas han sido escasas y tardías (a finales de 2012 se aprueba una moratoria de los desahucios de las familias definidas como más vulnerables), si bien en la comunidad Autónoma Vasca la situación es algo mejor y ha habido relativamente pocos desahucios, siendo el papel del gobierno y los bancos locales más activo en la política anti-desahucios.ABSTRACT This paper analyses the residential boom, its collapse and the consequences of this collapse. As far as these consequences are concerned, we particularly pay attention to the phenomena of repossessions and evictions since these have a strong impact on the lives of people. The paper uses a welfare system perspective to explain how the importance of repossessions and evictions differs between European countries and regions. The research is based on a literature review and an analysis of policy documents and secondary data sources. Three different levels of scale are considered in our analysis: Europe, Spain and Basque country. The main research findings are outlined in the remainder of this abstract. The paper starts with an overview of house price developments and repossessions in different European countries. We observe that, even though house price developments have followed a rather similar path across Europe (a boom followed by a bust), the importance of repossessions clearly differs between countries. Based on a literature review, we conclude that the risk of repossession has six main dimensions (see also Cano et al., 2013): 2. the social protection schemes: a lack of good social protection schemes increases the risk of repossession; 4. the lending practices: high loan to value ratios and the occurrence of subprime mortgages increase the risk of repossessions; 6. the effectiveness of policies to prevent repossession: the absence of effective policies by either the government or the banking sector increases the risk of repossessions. An international comparative analysis shows that these risk factors are not equally distributed across the different types of welfare state regime. They are more prevalent in the liberal and Mediterranean welfare state regime than in the social-democratic and the corporatist welfare state regime. Indeed, the available statistics show that the number of repossessions is particularly high in Spain and Italy (Mediterranean welfare state regime) and the United Kingdom and Ireland (liberal welfare state regime). Especially Spain stands out as a rather dramatic case. The second part of the paper analyses the boom and bust on the Spanish housing market and describes how the various risk factors outlined above have developed in this country. We conclude that the number of repossessions has strongly increased after 2007 and that the response of the Spanish government to this problem can best be described with the term ‘too little, too late’. Only recently, the Spanish national government has introduced a moratorium on repossessions for specific types of home owners. The third part of the paper focuses on the situation in Basque country. In this autonomous region, there are relatively few repossessions and evictions, which seems to be due to the fact that the regional government and the local banks are conducting active policies to prevent this problem. Furthermore, the level of unemployment in Basque country is relatively low compared to that in the rest of Spain, whereas the social protection system is better.