IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rau/journl/v10y2015i3p91-104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact Of Oil And Natural Gas Prices On The Turkish Foreign Trade Balance: Unit Root And Cointegration Tests With Structural Breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Yilmaz BAYAR

    (Usak University)

  • Huseyin KARAMELIKLI

    (Karabuk University, Turkey)

Abstract

Energy is one of the main inputs in the industrial production process. There have been remarkable increases in global production with the industrial revolution and globalization. The raising energy demand as a result of the increases in global production has been predominantly met by nonrenewable resources such as oil, natural gas and coal. Consequently we have experienced significant increases in energy prices especially as of oil shocks in 1970s. This study investigates the role of energy in the chronic foreign trade deficits of Turkey by using Hatemi-J (2008) cointegration test and Toda-Yamamoto (1995) causality test during the period 1997:01-2015:03. We found that there was long run relationship among the foreign trade deficit, oil and natural gas prices and real effective exchange rate and there was unidirectional causality from oil and natural gas prices to the foreign trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yilmaz BAYAR & Huseyin KARAMELIKLI, 2015. "Impact Of Oil And Natural Gas Prices On The Turkish Foreign Trade Balance: Unit Root And Cointegration Tests With Structural Breaks," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 10(3), pages 91-104, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rau:journl:v:10:y:2015:i:3:p:91-104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rebe.rau.ro/RePEc/rau/journl/FA15/REBE-FA15-A7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Mignon, Valérie & Sallenave, Audrey, 2015. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
    2. H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
    3. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Pires Manso, José Ramos, 2014. "The linkage between crude oil consumption and economic growth in Latin America: The panel framework investigations for multiple regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-241.
    4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    6. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    7. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
    8. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    10. Schubert, Stefan F., 2014. "Dynamic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks And Their Impact On The Current Account," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 316-337, March.
    11. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2015. "The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 84-95.
    12. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    13. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
    14. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liurong Pan & Asad Amin & Nian Zhu & Abbas Ali Chandio & Eric Yaw Naminse & Aadil Hameed Shah, 2022. "Exploring the Asymmetrical Influence of Economic Growth, Oil Price, Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production on the Trade Deficit in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Nazife Özge BEŞER, 2019. "The effect of oil prices on foreign trade deficit in the economics of Bulgaria," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(620), A), pages 159-170, Autumn.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2015. "Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market performance: Do nature of shocks and economies matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 261-274.
    2. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    3. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-96.
    4. Fizaine, Florian, 2015. "Minor metals and organized markets: News highlights about the consequences of establishing a futures market in a thin market with a dual trading price system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 59-70.
    5. Marei Elbadri & Eralp Bektaş, 2022. "Dynamic relationship among the bank stability, oil, and gold prices: Evidence from the Islamic banks operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2153-2168, April.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Current Issues in Time-Series Analysis for the Energy-Growth Nexus; Asymmetries and Nonlinearities Case Study: Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82221, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2017.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zeshan, Muhammad & Afza, Talat, 2012. "Is energy consumption effective to spur economic growth in Pakistan? New evidence from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2310-2319.
    8. Salah A. Nusair & Khalid M. Kisswani, 2015. "Asian Real Exchange Rates And Oil Prices: A Cointegration Analysis Under Structural Breaks," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(S1), pages 1-25, December.
    9. Payne, James E., 2010. "A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 723-731, March.
    10. Camgöz, Mevlüt & Topal, Mehmet Hanefi, 2022. "Identifying the asymmetric price dynamics of Islamic equities: Implications for international investors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Xiaojuan He & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Melike Torun & Zecheng Li, 2021. "Modeling Economic Risk in the QISMUT Countries: Evidence From Nonlinear Cointegration Tests," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    12. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
    13. Musah, Mohammed & Onifade, Stephen Taiwo & Ankrah, Isaac & Gyamfi, Bright Akwasi & Amoako, George Kofi, 2024. "Achieving net-zero emission target in Africa: Are sustainable energy innovations and financialization crucial for environmental sustainability of sub-Saharan African state?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    14. Yarovaya, Larisa & Lau, Marco Chi Keung, 2016. "Stock market comovements around the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from the UK, BRICS and MIST markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 605-619.
    15. Bondia, Ripsy & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "International crude oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies: Evidence from non-linear cointegration tests with unknown structural breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 558-565.
    16. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
    17. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: The role of foreign direct investment, capital formation and trade openness in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 835-845.
    19. Sotoudeh, M-Ali & Worthington, Andrew C., 2016. "Estimating the effects of global oil market shocks on Australian merchandise trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-84.
    20. Veli YILANCI & Sertaç HOPOĞLU & Hakan ERYÜZLÜ, 2023. "The impact of the economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks on tourism demand of Mexico," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 147-164, Autumn.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rau:journl:v:10:y:2015:i:3:p:91-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alex Tabusca (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferauro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.