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Adaptation à court et à long terme de l'agriculture au risque de sécheresse : une approche par couplage de modèles biophysiques et économiques

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  • Arnaud Reynaud

    (LERNA-INRA, Université Toulouse I de Sciences sociales, 21, allée de Brienne, 31042 Toulouse Cedex, France)

Abstract

[paper in French] In this article, we analyse the impact of drought risk on agriculture. We use a biophysical crop growth model (STICS) in order to simulate crop yield under various climatic scenarios. A micro-economic model which optimises, under climate uncertainty, land allocation across crops and irrigation is developed to reflect farmer’s behaviour. This framework is used to assess the impact of drought risk on a representative French farmer located in the Midi-Pyrénées region (South-West of France). We first show that, on the short run, the private cost of a drought can be high. On the long run, farmers can however significantly reduce this cost by modifying their cropping systems. We finally demonstrate that French farmers may benefit from the implementation of early drought alert mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Reynaud, 2009. "Adaptation à court et à long terme de l'agriculture au risque de sécheresse : une approche par couplage de modèles biophysiques et économiques," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 90(2), pages 121-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:rae:jourae:v:90:y:2009:i:2:p:121-154
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/188530/2/90-2-121-154.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Philippe Bontems & Alban Thomas, 2000. "Information Value and Risk Premium in Agricultural Production: The Case of Split Nitrogen Application for Corn," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 59-70.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sidibe, Y. & Williams, T.O., 2018. "A comparative analysis of water pricing options on two large-scale irrigation schemes in West Africa," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276017, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; drought risk; agriculture; adaptation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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