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L' economia statunitense: debolezze della ÒforteÓ ripresa

Author

Listed:
  • Wynne Godley

    (University of Cambridge, CERF Ð Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance, Cambridge (Gran Bretagna))

  • Alex Izurieta

    (University of Cambridge, CERF Ð Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance, Cambridge (Gran Bretagna))

Abstract

The strategic prospects for the US (or any) economy can be evaluated by reference to the financial balances of its main sectors, which are related to one another by a consistent accounting system. The 1992-2000 expansion, accompanied by a rising budget surplus, was greeted by a storm of self-congratulation in the US and widely expected to last indefinitely. But inspection of the balances revealed that the configuration of driving forces was unsustainable and that the fiscal stance should drastically change at some stage. Eventually, there has indeed been a huge fiscal expansion which warded off an incipient recession. But the new configuration of financial balances again reveals an unsustainable situation, with government, foreign and private debt all rising excessively fast. Sustained growth in the medium term can only be achieved if there is now a prolonged expansion in net export demand--for which the rest of the world does not seem to be well prepared.

Suggested Citation

  • Wynne Godley & Alex Izurieta, 2004. "L' economia statunitense: debolezze della ÒforteÓ ripresa," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 57(226), pages 151-160.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2004:22
    as

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    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/monetaecredito/article/view/9764/9647
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wynne Godley & L. Randall Wray, "undated". "Can Goldilocks Survive?," Economics Policy Note Archive 99-4, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Wynne Godley, 2003. "The US Economy: A Changing Strategic Predicament," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive 03-3, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Wynne Godley & George McCarthy, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Will Matter," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 38-54, January.
    4. Wynne Godley, "undated". "Kick-Start Strategy Fails to Fire Sputtering U.S. Economic Motor," Economics Policy Note Archive 02-1, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Wynne Godley, Alex Izurieta, 2002. "The Case for a Severe Recession," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 27-51.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget; Surplus;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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