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The likelihood of European Monetary Union

Author

Listed:
  • J. WEIDMANN

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

A simple calculation method measures the level of probability of the European Monetary Union (EMU) formation. The equation makes use of forward interest rates with settlement time after January 1, 1999, to determine the number of countries that will abide by EMU's provision for a single euro-currency of all members. The study reveals the probability of EMU formation that is dependent on political events and opinion polls. Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and France are expected to be the prime movers in the monetary union.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Weidmann, 1996. "The likelihood of European Monetary Union," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(199), pages 405-413.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:1996:42
    as

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    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/10617/10501
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
    2. Livio Stracca, "undated". "Economics and Politics: Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and EMU," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/6, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Exchange & Reserves Policy; Monetary unions; European Monetary System;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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