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A Convergence Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author

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  • Viktors Ajevskis

    (Bank of Latvia)

  • Kristine Vitola

    (Bank of Latvia)

Abstract

This paper develops a convergence model of the term structure of interest rates in the context of entering the EMU. Compared with the other models developed so far in this field, our model specification ensures convergence of the domestic short-term interest rates to the euro area ones. We achieve this convergence by stating that the spread between the domestic and euro short-term interest rates follows the Brownian bridge process. We also develop an econometric counterpart of the theoretical model. To address the problem of nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the model, the extended Kalman filter for coefficient estimation is applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Viktors Ajevskis & Kristine Vitola, 2009. "A Convergence Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2009/01, Latvijas Banka.
    • Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200901
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
    2. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jesper Lund, 1999. "A Model for Studying the Effect of EMU on European Yield Curves," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(3), pages 321-363.
    4. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    5. Teresa Corzo Santamaria & E. S. Schwartz, 2000. "Convergence within the EU: Evidence from Interest Rates," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(2), pages 243-266, July.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    7. David S. Bates, 1999. "Financial Markets' Assessment of EMU," NBER Working Papers 6874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kentaro Kikuchi, 2024. "A term structure interest rate model with the Brownian bridge lower bound," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 301-328, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structure of interest rates; the Brownian bridge; the EMU; nonlinear Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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