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La nouvelle Europe de l'Est dans les échanges mondiaux : de la stagnation au déclin ?

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  • Thomas Fricke

Abstract

[eng] Central and Eastern Europe's foreign trade is subject to a period of radical changes. The sudden vanishing of the former exchange conditions contributes to the disintegration of a whole trade net within the CMEA, while some countries could unexpectedly improve their export performance on Western markets. Nevertheless, prospects for a successful geographical and sectoral reorientation of trade are quite narrow. Since serious structural and macroeconomic problems are arising in the transition period, it will be more difficult for each of the Eastern countries to benefit from the relative abundance of a fairly high skilled labour and from the proximity of Western Europe. In addition to this, the limited access to the Western markets, especially in the fields of agriculture, textiles, and steel, reduces the potential of economic growth in the short run. Thus, a wider opening-up of markets in the West seems to be necessary in order to prevent a vicious circle, where the shortfall of exports aggravates macroeconomic problems, which again slow down the process of restructuring. Even a considerable liberalization would none the less be insufficient to fully satisfy Eastern export needs. In this respect, a Central and Eastern European multilateral payments system could limit the wide-ranging effects of the present collapse in trade. With its positive effects on mutual economic relations, it would also ease the restructuring process of the former intra-regional trade. Without such a new framework, Central and Eastern Europe's chances to soustain growth by exports appear in return to be quite poor even in the long run. [fre] Le commerce extérieur des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale traverse une période de fortes turbulences. Avec le démantèlement précipité du cadre antérieur des échanges, le réseau commercial intra-CAEM se décompose, tandis que certains pays enregistrent des succès d'exportation inespérés sur les marchés occidentaux. Les perspectives d'une réorientation géographique et sectorielle réussie sont cependant sombres. D'une part, les problèmes de la transition rendent plus incertaine la valorisation commerciale d'une main-d'œuvre relativement qualifiée et de la proximité de l'Europe de l'Ouest. D'autre part, l'accès difficile aux marchés occidentaux, notamment dans les domaines de l'agriculture, des textiles et de l'acier, risque d'enlever aux économies en transition une source de croissance importante dans l'immédiat. Afin d'éviter le déclenchement d'un cercle vicieux — où la modestie de l'expansion commerciale accentue les problèmes macroéconomiques, tandis que ceux-ci freinent le processus de restructuration — , une ouverture plus vaste de l'Ouest semble indispensable. Or, sa capacité d'absorption est insuffisante pour satisfaire pleinement les besoins d'exportation est-européens. La mise en place d'un système de paiements entre pays d'Europe centrale et orientale pourrait s'imposer comme moyen de limiter les dégâts, qui sont causés par l'effondrement actuel de leurs échanges. Une telle solution concertée, qui favoriserait le commerce mutuel, permettrait en même temps de restructurer progressivement un réseau multilatéral d'échanges, sans lequel une croissance durablement confortée par les exportations semble peu probable à l'Est.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Fricke, 1991. "La nouvelle Europe de l'Est dans les échanges mondiaux : de la stagnation au déclin ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 139-172.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1991_num_37_1_1253
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1991.1253
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1991.1253
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    2. Françoise Milewski, 1990. "Les enjeux de l'ouverture à l'Est pour l'économie mondiale," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(1), pages 157-194.
    3. Lorenz, Detlef, 1991. "Will the industrialized countries also face export-led growth from eastern Europe?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 167-175.
    4. Portes, Richard, 1991. "The Transition to Convertibility in Eastern Europe and the USSR," CEPR Discussion Papers 500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    6. Lorenz, Detlef, 1990. "West- und Osteuropa: weltwirtschaftliche Probleme des Zusammenwachsens," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 70(12), pages 627-632.
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    8. Thomas,Alex M., 2021. "Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108731997, September.
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