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Une projection à moyen terme de la dette des pays en développement débiteurs de la France

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  • Gérald Collange
  • François Guillaumat-Taillet

Abstract

[eng] A Medium-term Projection of the Debt of the Developing Countries Indebted to France Gérald Collange, François Guillaumat-Tailliet After the easing that followed the 1981-1982 debt crisis, the financial situation of indebted countries has again worsened. Among other indicators, the recent deterioration of the debt ratios reveals how critical the present situation is. French banks are particularly concerned, since their assets on developing countries amount to 400 billion francs. We develop a model which takes into account the determinants of trade between developing and OECD countries, as well as between developing countries themselves. Then we estimate the debt of the main countries indebted to French banks. Alternative simulations are computed according to hypotheses on the value taken by the key exogenous variables. The results allow us to derive some conclusions about the nature, magnitude and prospects of the developing countries indebtedness. The situation appears rather serious and not likely to be resolved by itself. However, the projection results tend to suggest that no fatality hangs over the debt problem. It is indeed possible to act efficiently in the interest of both debtors and creditors. More sustained growth in industrial countries could be the best answer to the debt problem. It would boost LDC exports, increase their activity and imports and therefore improve their development. Failing such sustained growth in industrial countries, a reduction in interest rates could alleviate financial constraint. In the less favorable case of a continued depressed international environment, resorting to adjustment policies (i.e. reduction in domestic expenditures, devaluation of their currency) turns out to be efficient in the medium-term, but costly. However, the benefits from such a policy (which is unfavorable to trade and to international cooperation) would be much less for both industrial and developing countries. [fre] Après le relatif apaisement qui a suivi la crise de l'endettement des PVD en 1981-1982, la situation financière apparaît de nouveau tendue entre débiteurs et créanciers. La dégradation récente des ratios d'endettement, parmi d'autres indicateurs, illustre le caractère préoccupant de la situation. Notamment pour les banques françaises dont les créances sur les PVD se montent à 400 milliards de francs. A partir d'un modèle qui vise à prendre en compte les déterminants du commerce qu'entretiennent les PVD, non seulement avec les pays de la zone OCDE, mais aussi entre eux, nous réalisons une projection de la dette des principaux débiteurs de la France à l'horizon 1990. Des simulations en variante sur les principales variables exogènes d'environnement international, ainsi que sur la capacité d'ajustement des pays débiteurs, permettent de tirer quelques enseignements sur la nature, l'ampleur et les perspectives de l'endettement des pays en développement. La situation apparaît à juste titre préoccupante et peu susceptible de se résorber d'elle-même. En revanche les projections montrent qu'aucune fatalité ne pèse sur le problème de l'endettement : il est possible d'agir avec efficacité, dans l'intérêt à la fois des débiteurs et des créanciers. Une croissance plus soutenue des économies industrielles constituerait la meilleure réponse, en agissant directement sur les volumes exportés par les PVD, donc sur leur niveau d'activité et en retour sur leur capacité d'importations et de développement. En l'absence d'une telle croissance, un desserrement sensible de la contrainte de financement pourrait provenir d'une détente sur les taux d'intérêt créditeurs. Dans le cas le plus défavorable, où l'environnement international resterait déprimé, la mise en œuvre de politiques de stabilisation (diminution de la dépense intérieure, dévaluation...) s'avérerait bien entendu coûteuse, mais efficace à moyen terme. Cependant les bénéfices à attendre d'une telle solution, peu favorable au développement des échanges et de la coopération internationale, seraient bien moindres, tant pour les pays endettés que pour les pays industriels.

Suggested Citation

  • Gérald Collange & François Guillaumat-Taillet, 1987. "Une projection à moyen terme de la dette des pays en développement débiteurs de la France," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 21(1), pages 153-190.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1987_num_21_1_1110
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1987.1110
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1987.1110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gérald Collange & François Guillaumat-Taillet, 1988. "Les déterminants des prix des matières premières : une analyse économétrique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 25(1), pages 145-171.

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