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La baisse de la rentabilité aux États-Unis : inventaire de recherches et mise en perspective historique

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  • Gérard Duménil
  • Mark Glick
  • José Rangel

Abstract

[fre] La rentabilité du capital a beaucoup baissé aux États-Unis depuis la deuxième guerre mondiale. L'analyse des nombreuses études désormais disponibles sur ce thème permet de reconstituer les grandes lignes du profil de cette baisse. Le taux élevé des années quarante et du début des années cinquante fléchit notablement jusqu'en 1958 environ. La remontée est ensuite spectaculaire jusqu'en 1965. De 1966 à 1970 la chute est particulièrement rapide. Elle se poursuit depuis lors, à travers quelques fluctuations, à un rythme ralenti. Les informations dont on dispose concernant les périodes de l'entre-deux-guerres et d'avant la première guerre mondiale (depuis 1880), permettent de soutenir la thèse d'une baisse par paliers. Au cours des cent dernières années, deux ou trois points de rupture peuvent être localisés : la fin de la première guerre mondiale, la seconde moitié des années soixante et, sous certaines réserves, la deuxième guerre mondiale. La présente faiblesse de la rentabilité du capital constitue un record historique si on exclut la grande dépression des années trente. [eng] There has been a dramatic fall in the rate of profit in the United States since worid war II. The profile of this fall is discribed through the findings of the numerous studies of this issue now available. The point of departure following world war II is a high point of profitability. The rate of profit falls throughout the nineteen fifties until its strong restoration in 1965. From 1966 to 1970, a major collapse of profitability occurs and the post 1970 situation is also one of decline through fluctuations. When information is pieced together from studies of profitability of the between-two-wars period and the pre-world-war I period, an impression is depicted of a long run decrease in the rate of profit but by steps. During the last one hundred years, two, possibly three, major downward steps have occured : the end of world war I, the second half of the nineteen sixties and world war II with certain reservations. Following each of these steps the higher rate of profit is never restored. The significance of the earlier studies for the present is that they reveal the US economy to be living through a period of unprecedented low profitability with the possible exception of the great depression of the nineteen thirties.

Suggested Citation

  • Gérard Duménil & Mark Glick & José Rangel, 1984. "La baisse de la rentabilité aux États-Unis : inventaire de recherches et mise en perspective historique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 69-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1984_num_6_1_967
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1984.967
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1984.967
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    References listed on IDEAS

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