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Croissance et contrainte financière dans les pays en développement

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  • Pierre Villa

Abstract

[fre] Croissance et contrainte financière dans les pays en développement. . Les ratios prudentials du type endettement extérieur/PIB ont été introduits par les prêteurs internationaux pour se prémunir contre le rique de défaut de paiement des FED. Cependant, ces ratios prudentiels ne tiennent pas compte de l'origine des chocs. Lorsque l'investissement bute contre la contrainte financière, cette dernière devient préjudiciable à la croissance. Elle peut même provoquer un « piège de croissance ». La contrainte financière nécessite de réduire l'investissement pour financer la dette extérieure, ce qui implique un régime durable de croissance ralentie. Afin de préciser la nature de ce « piège de croissance », nous développons des modèles à un puis à deux pays dont le FED a les caractéristiques suivantes : pas de marché financier national, pas d'accès aux marchés boursiers, rareté du capital et abondance du travail. On distingue deux régimes sur le marché des biens selon que le pays est exportateur ou importateur net et deux régimes d'investissement selon que ce dernier est déterminé par la demande ou par les contraintes financières. Les anticipations de croissance de la demande sont rationnelles et endogènes. [eng] Financial constraint and growth in the developing countries. . The prudential ratios External debt/GDP have been introduced by international lenders to limit credits to some developing countries in order to secure themselves against the risk of default. However, these prudential ratios do not take into account the origin of the shocks. Financial constraints that ration investment are prejudicial to growth. It can indeed induce a « Growth Trap ». The decrease of investment help finance the external debt but implies a long lasting regime of slow growth. In order to precise this « Growth Trap », we develop models with one or two countries. The developing country has the following features: no national financial market, no access to international stock markets, scarcity of physical capital and abundance of labour. Two regimes of goods are distinguished according to the fact that the country is a net exporter or importer. Two regimes of investment are distinguished according to the fact that it is demand determined or financially constrained. The expectations of the growth of demand are rational and endogenous and reveal the constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Villa, 1998. "Croissance et contrainte financière dans les pays en développement," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 103-117.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1998_num_49_1_409966
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    1. Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991. "Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 437-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    4. Pierre Villa, 1996. "Croissance et contraintes financières dans les PED," Working Papers 1996-11, CEPII research center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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