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Régulation du déficit budgétaire et croissance des dépenses de l'Etat en France de 1815 à 1939. Une modélisation économétrique simple des régimes fisco-financiers libéraux

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  • Bruno Théret

Abstract

[fre] Régulation du déficit budgétaire et croissance des dépenses de l'État en France de 1815 à 1939. Une modélisation économétrique simple des régimes fisco-financiers libéraux. . L'article propose une modélisation économétrique annuelle de la régulation du déficit budgétaire et de la croissance des finances étatiques pour la France de 1815 à 1939 en distinguant les régimes politiques qui s'y sont succédé. Après avoir confronté doctrine et pratique budgétaires, est construite à partir de l'observation une relation d'autorégulation du déficit budgétaire dont on étudie le paramétrage selon les régimes politiques distingués. Les régimes fisco-financiers dits de type «libéral-rentier» ainsi quantifiés correspondent à l'alternance pacifisme/militarisme de la dynamique de court terme de la dépense publique, alter­nance caractéristique à cette époque comme sous l'Ancien Régime du cycle long des finances publiques. Il apparaît enfin que la régulation des finances publiques ainsi élucidée, bien que valable sur la longue période analysée, subit d'abord une dérive importante sous la Troisième République par rapport à l'époque des monarchies constitutionnelles, puis rentre en crise dans l'entre-deux guerres. [eng] Budget deficit regulation and growth of government expenditure in the « large » XIXth century France (1815-1935) empirical evidence from a simple econometric model of liberal fiscal regimes. . The paper presents a simple annual econometric model of regulation of the fiscal deficit and of the growth of public finance for France between 1815 and 1939. This model provides an appraisal of the dynamics of public finance, pointing differences between the political regimes which have succeeded one after the other during this period. After a discussion of the lag between fiscal doctrine and practise, a reduced relationship is built where past deficit limits growth of new deficit in exerting positive pressure on taxes and negative one on expenditures. The parameters of the model are functions of the degree of liberalism of the political regimes and of the place of these regimes in the course of a long run fiscal cycle, remanence of the traditional "kingly" State, which can be divided into a pacifist and a military phases. Finally, it appears that the "rentier-liberal" type of fiscal regime runs all over the long period but is undermined during the third Republic before knowing a structural crisis in the interwar period.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Théret, 1995. "Régulation du déficit budgétaire et croissance des dépenses de l'Etat en France de 1815 à 1939. Une modélisation économétrique simple des régimes fisco-financiers libéraux," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(1), pages 57-90.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1995_num_46_1_409628
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1995.409628
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1995.409628
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Magnus Henrekson & Johan Lybeck, 1988. "Explaining the growth of government in Sweden: A disequilibrium approach," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 213-232, June.
    2. Cusack, Thomas R., 1985. "Contention and Compromise: a Comparative Analysis of Budgetary Politics," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 497-519, October.
    3. Pesaran, M H & Smith, R P & Yeo, J S, 1985. "Testing for Structural Stability and Predictive Failure: A Review," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 53(3), pages 280-295, September.
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