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L'interdépendance des économies en change flexible : les apports d'une maquette dynamique

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  • Henri Sterdyniak
  • Éric Bleuze

Abstract

[eng] Iterdependence of economies under flexible exchange rates : the contributions of dynamic model. . This paper present a dynamic model in order to analyse interdependence between two identical countries under flexible exchange rates. The dynamic process is depending on slow adjustment of prices to their desired level (which is positively related to real interest rate) combined with the influence of current account on foreign exchange markets. On the short run, the exchange rate is determined by financial factors ; on the long run by current account. So the model gives a classical long term equilibrium reached on a keynesian trajectory. Following a disturbance, the new equilibrium is obtained slowly with complex trajectories, which are difficult to forecast. This leads us to be skeptic concerning the realism of the rational expectations hypothesis. Flexible exchange rates are unable to isolate each country from the schocks occurred in the other. More precisely, both countries suffer from a degradation of supply conditions in one of them. A demand expansion in one country provokes a temporary production rise, followed by a long depression especially in the initiating country, whose exchange rate is progressively depreciated. [fre] L'interdépendance des économies en change flexible : les apports d'une maquette dynamique. . L'article présente une maquette dynamique qui permet d'analyser l'interdépendance de deux pays de taille similaire en change flexible. La dynamique repose sur l'ajustement lent des prix à leur niveau désiré (qui est une fonction croissante du taux d'intérêt réel) et sur l'influence de la balance courante sur le marché des changes : le taux de change est déterminé, à court terme, par des facteurs financiers, à long terme, par la balance courante. Aussi, la maquette a un long terme classique et une trajectoire keynésienne. A la suite d'un choc, le retour à l'équilibre est souvent long et les trajectoires complexes et difficilement prévisibles, ce qui jette un doute sur le réalisme de l'hypothèse d'anticipations rationnelles. La flexibilité des changes n 'isole guère chaque pays des chocs survenant chez son partenaire. En particulier, les deux pays souffrent d'une dégradation des conditions de l'offre survenant dans l'un deux ; une hausse de la demande dans l'un des pays provoque une expansion temporaire de la production puis une phase prolongée de dépression, surtout marquée dans le pays initiateur : celui-ci voit son taux de change se déprécier progressivement.

Suggested Citation

  • Henri Sterdyniak & Éric Bleuze, 1988. "L'interdépendance des économies en change flexible : les apports d'une maquette dynamique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(5), pages 999-1034.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1988_num_39_5_409110
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1988.409110
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1988.409110
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    1. Agnès Bénassy & Henri Sterdyniak, 1992. "La détermination des taux de change dans les modèles multinationaux : l'état de l'art," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 39-71.
    2. Fabrice Capoen & Jérôme Creel & Pascal Cussy & Hélène Lenoble-Liaud, 2000. "How to manage speculative shocks : intra-european vs. international monetary coordination," Working Papers hal-03458449, HAL.
    3. Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudre, 2007. "On the Contingency of Equilibrium Exchange Rates with Time - Consistent Economic Policies," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01066080, HAL.
    4. Antoine Bouveret, 2010. "Economic policies, long run equilibrium and exchange rate dynamics [Politiques économiques, dynamique et équilibre de long terme du taux de change]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04097866, HAL.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5262 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Franck Amalric & Henri Sterdyniak, 1989. "Interdépendance et coopération : les leçons d'une maquette," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 26(1), pages 135-156.
    7. Fabrice Capoën & Pierre Villa, 1997. "Internal and External Policy Coordination: a Dynamic Analysis," Working Papers 1997-15, CEPII research center.
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    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6125 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jérôme Creel, 2001. "Faut-il contraindre la politique budgétaire en Union monétaire ?. Les enseignements d'une maquette simulée," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 77(2), pages 199-249.
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h is not listed on IDEAS
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