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Keynes et les probabilités : un aspect du « fondamentalisme » keynésien

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  • Jean Arrous

Abstract

[fre] En dépit des controverses qui entourent son interprétation, le chapitre xn de la Théorie générale de Keynes (« L'état de la prévision à long terme ») constitue l'une des contributions essentielles de cet auteur à la macroéconomie, contribution que A. Coddington qualifie de « fondamentalisme » keynésien. Le présent article montre que les développements de ce chapitre sont éclairés par la lecture [eng] Keynes and probability :. An insight into « fundamentalist Keynesianism ». Jean Arrous. The main argument developed in this paper is that one of the most fundamental contributions of }. M. Keynes to macroeconomics, namely Chapter 12 of the General Theory (« The state of long-term expectation ») can be better understood with the analytical framework of his much earlier Treatise on Probability. The above subject is certainly one of the most controversial aspects of Keynes' theory and at the same time a cornerstone of what A. Coddington has called « fundamentalist keynesianism ». The analysis of uncertainty being so central to investment and thus to ouerall macroeconomic instability we do have to shed a light upon its probabilistic foundations.

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  • Jean Arrous, 1982. "Keynes et les probabilités : un aspect du « fondamentalisme » keynésien," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(5), pages 839-861.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_5_408683
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1982.408683
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1982.408683
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. E. Roy Weintraub, 1975. "“Uncertainty” and the Keynesian Revolution," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 530-548, Winter.
    2. Mark Stohs, 1980. "‘Uncertainty’ in Keynes' General Theory," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 372-382, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Piluso, 2015. "Un examen critique des liens entre le Traité des probabilités et la Théorie générale de Keynes," Post-Print hal-01399077, HAL.
    2. Christophe Lavialle, 2001. "L'épistémologie de Keynes et "l'hypothèse Wittgenstein" : La cohérence logique de la Théorie Générale de l'emploi, de l'intérêt et de la monnaie," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(1), pages 25-64.
    3. Schinckus, Christophe, 2009. "Economic uncertainty and econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(20), pages 4415-4423.
    4. André Orléan, 1989. "Pour une approche cognitive des conventions économiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(2), pages 241-272.

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