IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_5_408683.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Keynes et les probabilités : un aspect du « fondamentalisme » keynésien

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Arrous

Abstract

[fre] En dépit des controverses qui entourent son interprétation, le chapitre xn de la Théorie générale de Keynes (« L'état de la prévision à long terme ») constitue l'une des contributions essentielles de cet auteur à la macroéconomie, contribution que A. Coddington qualifie de « fondamentalisme » keynésien. Le présent article montre que les développements de ce chapitre sont éclairés par la lecture [eng] Keynes and probability :. An insight into « fundamentalist Keynesianism ». Jean Arrous. The main argument developed in this paper is that one of the most fundamental contributions of }. M. Keynes to macroeconomics, namely Chapter 12 of the General Theory (« The state of long-term expectation ») can be better understood with the analytical framework of his much earlier Treatise on Probability. The above subject is certainly one of the most controversial aspects of Keynes' theory and at the same time a cornerstone of what A. Coddington has called « fundamentalist keynesianism ». The analysis of uncertainty being so central to investment and thus to ouerall macroeconomic instability we do have to shed a light upon its probabilistic foundations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Arrous, 1982. "Keynes et les probabilités : un aspect du « fondamentalisme » keynésien," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(5), pages 839-861.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_5_408683
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1982.408683
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1982.408683
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/reco.1982.408683
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_5_408683
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/reco.1982.408683?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. Roy Weintraub, 1975. "“Uncertainty” and the Keynesian Revolution," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 530-548, Winter.
    2. Mark Stohs, 1980. "‘Uncertainty’ in Keynes' General Theory," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 372-382, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Piluso, 2015. "Un examen critique des liens entre le Traité des probabilités et la Théorie générale de Keynes," Post-Print hal-01399077, HAL.
    2. André Orléan, 1989. "Pour une approche cognitive des conventions économiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(2), pages 241-272.
    3. Christophe Lavialle, 2001. "L'épistémologie de Keynes et "l'hypothèse Wittgenstein" : La cohérence logique de la Théorie Générale de l'emploi, de l'intérêt et de la monnaie," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(1), pages 25-64.
    4. Schinckus, Christophe, 2009. "Economic uncertainty and econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(20), pages 4415-4423.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bélyácz, Iván, 2024. "A valószínűség mint döntési argumentum Keynes közgazdaságtanában [Probability as an argument of decision in Keynes economics]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 86-107.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_5_408683. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.