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Import Substitution and the Growth of Exports : an Econometric Test

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  • Jaleel Ahmad

Abstract

[eng] IMPORT SUBSTITUTION AND THE GROWTH OF EXPORTS AN ECONOMETRIC TEST. . In the traditional analysis, import substitution policies in the less developed economies are believed to be in conflict with the growth of exports. This paper argues that the presumed conflict between import substitution and export expansion avises primarily from the demand orientation of the traditional analysis. This paper examines the relationship from a supply standpoint, where the growth of domestic production capacity through an " accelerator " type of relation assumes a crucial role. It develops a testable hypothesis from a set of structural relations where import substitution is viewed as the necessary link in transforming primary producers into exporters of manufactures. The hypothesis is tested from cross-sectional data on a number of industrial sectors in the less developed countries. The results provide some measure of plausibility to the view that there need be no essential conflict between import substitution and the growth of exports when viewed from the vantage point of supply. [fre] Dans l'analyse traditionnelle, les politiques de substitution dans les importations par les pays en voie de développement sont supposées être en conflit avec la croissance de leurs exportations. Ce conflit présumé vient de ce que l'analyse traditionnelle se place du point de vue de la demande pour les exportations. Dans le présent exposé, nous considérons le problème sous l'aspect de l'offre pour les exportations, pour lequel la croissance de la capacité de production est liée à une relation d'accélération. Nous construisons une hypothèse basée sur un ensemble de relations structurelles où la substitution dans les importations est considérée comme le lien nécessaire pour passer du stade de la production de biens primairesà celui de l'exportation de biens manufacturés. Cette hypothèse est testée partir de coupes instantanées des données statistiques relatives aux secteurs industriels de pays en voie de développement. Ces résultats indiquent une grande plausibilité de la conclusion qu'il n'y a pas de conflit véritable entre la substitution dans les importations et la croissance des exportations quand on se place du point de vue de la capacité de production.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaleel Ahmad, 1976. "Import Substitution and the Growth of Exports : an Econometric Test," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 27(2), pages 286-296.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1976_num_27_2_408261
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1976.408261
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1976.408261
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hsu, Robert C, 1972. "Changing Domestic Demand and Ability to Export," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(1), pages 198-202, Jan.-Feb..
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