IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_1976_num_27_2_408261.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Import Substitution and the Growth of Exports : an Econometric Test

Author

Listed:
  • Jaleel Ahmad

Abstract

[eng] IMPORT SUBSTITUTION AND THE GROWTH OF EXPORTS AN ECONOMETRIC TEST. . In the traditional analysis, import substitution policies in the less developed economies are believed to be in conflict with the growth of exports. This paper argues that the presumed conflict between import substitution and export expansion avises primarily from the demand orientation of the traditional analysis. This paper examines the relationship from a supply standpoint, where the growth of domestic production capacity through an " accelerator " type of relation assumes a crucial role. It develops a testable hypothesis from a set of structural relations where import substitution is viewed as the necessary link in transforming primary producers into exporters of manufactures. The hypothesis is tested from cross-sectional data on a number of industrial sectors in the less developed countries. The results provide some measure of plausibility to the view that there need be no essential conflict between import substitution and the growth of exports when viewed from the vantage point of supply. [fre] Dans l'analyse traditionnelle, les politiques de substitution dans les importations par les pays en voie de développement sont supposées être en conflit avec la croissance de leurs exportations. Ce conflit présumé vient de ce que l'analyse traditionnelle se place du point de vue de la demande pour les exportations. Dans le présent exposé, nous considérons le problème sous l'aspect de l'offre pour les exportations, pour lequel la croissance de la capacité de production est liée à une relation d'accélération. Nous construisons une hypothèse basée sur un ensemble de relations structurelles où la substitution dans les importations est considérée comme le lien nécessaire pour passer du stade de la production de biens primairesà celui de l'exportation de biens manufacturés. Cette hypothèse est testée partir de coupes instantanées des données statistiques relatives aux secteurs industriels de pays en voie de développement. Ces résultats indiquent une grande plausibilité de la conclusion qu'il n'y a pas de conflit véritable entre la substitution dans les importations et la croissance des exportations quand on se place du point de vue de la capacité de production.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaleel Ahmad, 1976. "Import Substitution and the Growth of Exports : an Econometric Test," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 27(2), pages 286-296.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1976_num_27_2_408261
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1976.408261
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1976.408261
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/reco.1976.408261
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1976_num_27_2_408261
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/reco.1976.408261?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhagwati, Jagdish N & Krueger, Anne O, 1973. "Exchange Control, Liberalization, and Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 419-427, May.
    2. Cohen, Benjamin I & Sisler, Daniel G, 1971. "Exports of Developing Countries in the 1960's," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 354-361, November.
    3. Hsu, Robert C, 1972. "Changing Domestic Demand and Ability to Export," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(1), pages 198-202, Jan.-Feb..
    4. Albert O. Hirschman, 1968. "The Political Economy of Import-Substituting Industrialization in Latin America," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(1), pages 1-32.
    5. Basevi, Giorgio, 1970. "Domestic Demand and Ability to Export," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 330-337, March-Apr.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yağmur Sağlam & Hüseyin Avni Egeli, 2018. "A Comparison of Domestic Demand and Export-led Growth Strategies for European Transition Economies," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(3), pages 156-173, August.
    2. Waterbury, John, 1999. "The Long Gestation and Brief Triumph of Import-Substituting Industrialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 323-341, February.
    3. Bahar, Dany & Rosenow, Samuel & Stein, Ernesto & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2019. "Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-60.
    4. Marc Badia†Miró & Anna Carreras†Marín & Christopher M. Meissner, 2018. "Geography, policy, or productivity? Regional trade in five South American countries, 1910–50," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(1), pages 236-266, February.
    5. Daisuke Oyama & Yasuhiro Sato & Takatoshi Tabuchi & Jacques-François Thisse, 2009. "On the impact of trade on industrial structures: The role of entry cost heterogeneity," Working Papers halshs-00566786, HAL.
    6. Fung, Michael Ka-Yiu, 1995. "Quotas, GNP and labor supply in a small open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 79-87.
    7. Mauro Boianovsky, 2010. "A View from the Tropics: Celso Furtado and the Theory of Economic Development in the 1950s," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 221-266, Summer.
    8. Casella, Alessandra, 1996. "Large countries, small countries and the enlargement of trade blocs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 389-415, February.
    9. Christian Volpe Martincus & Andrés Gallo, 2009. "Institutions and Export Specialization: Just Direct Effects?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 129-149, February.
    10. Andrey E. Shastitko & Anna I. Meleshkina & Olga A. Markova, 2021. "The market regulation triad: Antitrust, industrial policy and protectionism in the optical fiber market," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 47-61, March.
    11. repec:ilo:ilowps:371235 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Barend A. De Vries, 1972. "International Price Comparisons of Selected Capital Goods Industries," NBER Chapters, in: International Comparisons of Prices and Output, pages 335-367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Brander, James A. & Spencer, Barbara J., 1984. "Trade warfare: Tariffs and cartels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 227-242, May.
    14. Dieter Ernst & Bengt-åke Lundvall, 2004. "Information Technology in the Learning Economy: Challenges for Developing Countries," Chapters, in: Erik S. Reinert (ed.), Globalization, Economic Development and Inequality, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Alexis Habiyaremye & Evans Mupela, 2019. "How effective is local beneficiation policy in enhancing rural income and employment? The case of agro-processing beneficiation in Tzaneen, South Africa," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 34(4), pages 329-345, June.
    16. Barbara J. Spencer & James A. Brander, 1983. "International R & D Rivalry and Industrial Strategy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(4), pages 707-722.
    17. Heywood Fleisig & Catharine Hill, 1984. "The Benefits and Costs of Official Export Credit Programs," NBER Chapters, in: The Structure and Evolution of Recent US Trade Policy, pages 321-358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ranis, Gustav, 1997. "Reflections," Center Discussion Papers 28422, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    19. Daisuke Oyama & Yasuhiro Sato & Takatoshi Tabuchi & Jacques‐François Thisse, 2011. "On the impact of trade on the industrial structures of nations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 7(1), pages 93-109, March.
    20. Steinmueller, W. Edward, 2010. "Economics of Technology Policy," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1181-1218, Elsevier.
    21. Pavel Kadochnikov, 2006. "An Analysis of Import Substitution in Russia after the 1998 Crisis," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 95, pages 148-148.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1976_num_27_2_408261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.