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Modélisation de l'agriculture meusienne et « Paquet Santer »

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  • Ahmed Barkaoui
  • Jean-Pierre Butault

Abstract

[fre] Dans cet article nous simulons les effets du projet de la Commission européenne de réforme de la Politique agricole commune dit « Agenda 2000 » ou « Paquet Santer » sur l'agriculture du département de la Meuse. Cette simulation s'appuie sur les comptabilités analytiques individuelles d'un échantillon d'exploitations représentatif de l'agriculture professionnelle meusienne et sur une modélisation de type programmation mathématique. L'originalité du modèle est la prise en compte d'une flexibilité dans les rendements, le chargement et l'intégration des effets du progrès technique et des changements structurels des exploitations. Les simulations font prévoir une baisse de l'offre de viande bovine, une augmentation de l'offre de céréales et une évolution du revenu très variable selon les systèmes de production. Ces résultats, limités à l'agriculture meusienne, permettent d'avancer des réflexions sur les effets du « Paquet Santer » sur un champ plus vaste. [eng] Meuse agriculture modelling and "agenda 2000" . We simulate the effects of the European Commission's proposals for reforming the CAP, called the « Agenda 2000 » on the agriculture of the Meuse département, in France. This simulation is based on analytical economic accounts of a sample of farms representing professionnal Meuse agriculture, and on mathematical programming models. The originality of the model is to consider a flexibile yields and stocking rate and to integrate the effects of both technological and structural change on farms. According to the simulations, one may expect a decrease in beef production, an increase in grain production and changes in farm income that depend on production systems. The results on the Meuse agriculture make it possible to infer some more general effects of the proposed reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Barkaoui & Jean-Pierre Butault, 1998. "Modélisation de l'agriculture meusienne et « Paquet Santer »," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 248(1), pages 13-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_1998_num_248_1_5041
    DOI: 10.3406/ecoru.1998.5041
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.1998.5041
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    1. Butault, J. P. & Delame, N & Rousselle, J. M., 1994. "Formation et répartition des gains de productivité dans l'agriculture française. Analyse par produit," Cahiers d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales (CESR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 33.
    2. JP Butault & N Delame & JM Rousselle, 1994. "Formation et répartition des gains de productivité dans l'agriculture française. Analyse par produit," Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 33, pages 56-72.
    3. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 329-342.
    4. Roland Carles & François-Xavier Decouvelaere & Guy Millet & Alain Revel & Jean-Claude Sourie, 1998. "Nouveaux outils pour analyser les effets de la prochaine réforme de la PAC sur les exploitations agricoles," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 56-64.
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    1. Blanco Fonseca, Maria & Iglesias Martinez, Eva, 2005. "Modelling New EU Agricultural Policies: Global Guidelines, Local Strategies," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 232644, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Ahmed Barkaoui & Jean-Pierre Butault, 2000. "Programmation mathématique positive et offre de céréales et d'oléagineux dans l'Union Européenne sous l'agenda 2000," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 142(1), pages 13-25.
    3. Barkaoui, Ahmed & Butault, Jean-Pierre, 2000. "Cereals and Oilseeds Supply within the EU, under AGENDA 2000: A Positive Mathematical Programming Application," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 1(2), pages 1-12, August.

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