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Consommation : santé et loisirs au premier plan

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  • Dominique Darmon
  • Philippe L'Hardy

Abstract

[eng] Consumption : health and leasure in the foreground - In the year 2000, the French will spend more on health care and even on housing than on food. The greatest growth will be seen in leasure and transport expenditures. The part of the French budget devoted to food will continue to decrease. Expenditures on clothing and housing will probably reach a ceiling. Such are the principal consequential trends resulting from consumption projection models. . The estimates prove to be more difficult at a more detailed level. Price hypotheses may shift or even reverse evolution directions where certain « sensitive » products are concerned. Thus, doting expenditures will continue to increase at a slow rhythm if prices remain stable, but, given the hypothesis of a rise in relative prices, they could decrease in absolute value. [spa] Consumo : salud y ocio en primer termino - En el año 2000, el Frances gastará más en cuidados medicos, asi como para alojarse y para la alimentación. Los gastos de ocio y de transportes experimentarán en incremento más fuerte. La parte de alimentación en el presupuesto seguirá decreciendo. Los gastos para vestir y de alojamiento deberian de quedar en los limites. Tales son las principales tendencias pesadas que se desprenden de los modelos de proyección de consumo. . La prevision se verifica más delicada a nivel pormenorizado. Las hipótesis relativas a los precios pueden hasta modificar para ciertos productos « sensibles » el sentido de las evolutiones, pues el gasto para el vestir seguirá incrementándose a ritmo poco elevado y los precios permanecen estables más, podrian bajar en valor absoluto en la hipótesis de un alza de precios relativos. [fre] En l'an 2000, le Français dépensera plus pour se soigner et même pour se loger que pour se nourrir. Les dépenses de loisirs et de transports connaîtront la croissance la plus forte. La part de l'alimentation dans le budget des Français continuera de décroître. Les dépenses d'habillement et de logement devraient plafonner. Telles sont les principales tendances lourdes issues des modèles de projection de consommation. . La prévision s'avère plus délicate à un niveau détaillé. Les hypothèses concernant les prix peuvent infléchir, voire inverser pour certains produits « sensibles » le sens des évolutions. Ainsi, la dépense d'habillement continuera de croître à un rythme faible si les prix restent stables, mais pourrait décroître en valeur absolue dans l'hypothèse d'une hausse des prix relatifs.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominique Darmon & Philippe L'Hardy, 1986. "Consommation : santé et loisirs au premier plan," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 190(1), pages 55-69.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1986_num_190_1_2481
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1986.2481
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1986.2481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alain Charraud, 1984. "Formes et évolution de la consommation médicale aux différents âges de la vie," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(1), pages 47-66.
    2. Philippe L'Hardy & Alain Trognon, 1980. "Le mythe du nouveau consommateur," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(1), pages 13-22.
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    1. Dominique Darmon & Jean-Michel Hourriez & Philippe L'Hardy, 1991. "Consommation : l'effet du vieillissement," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 89-104.

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