IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/ecoprv/ecop_0249-4744_2010_num_194_3_8049.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quel avenir pour le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites ?

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigue Mendez
  • Lionel Ragot

Abstract

[eng] We use a model based on the latest forecasts by the French Retirement Advisory Council (Conseil d’Orientation des Retraites : COR) at the moment when the study was carried out and a Bootstrap simulation of the rate of return on the financial portfolio of the French Pension Reserve Fund (Fonds de Réserve pour les Retraites : FRR). Our results indicate that the FRR will cover at most 24 % of the expected deficit in 2020 and 14.9 % in 2040. We also explore the benefits and risks of a multipillar pension system in which the FRR is turned into a permanent “ public pension fund ” (Fonds de Pension Public : FPP). The FPP contribution might raise the replacement rates substantially from 2050 on. However, the transition is long and risky owing to the significant probability of a lower replacement rate in the multipillar system in the first 30 years. [fre] À partir d’une maquette calée sur les dernières prévisions du Conseil d’orientation des retraites disponibles au moment de l’étude et d’une simulation de type Bootstrap des rendements du portefeuille d’actifs détenu par le Fonds de réserves des retraites (FRR), nous montrons que sa contribution couvrira tout au plus 24 % des besoins de financement des retraites en 2020 et 14,9 % en 2040. Nous explorons également les gains et les risques d’un système multipilier où le FRR s’est transformé en Fonds de pension public permanent (FPP). Le complément de retraite offert par ce FPP permettrait d’accroître sensiblement - à partir de 2050 - les taux de remplacements. Le risque que le système multipilier fasse moins bien que la répartition est très fort dans les 30 premières années et devient résiduel autour de 2060.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigue Mendez & Lionel Ragot, 2010. "Quel avenir pour le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 194(3), pages 57-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2010_num_194_3_8049
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2010.8049
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2010.8049
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ecop.2010.8049
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0249-4744_2010_num_194_3_8049
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ecop.2010.8049?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anne Lavigne, 2008. "Le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites, bilan et perspectives," Regards croisés sur l'économie, La Découverte, vol. 0(1), pages 187-196.
    2. Alan B. Krueger, 1999. "Measuring Labor's Share," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 45-51, May.
    3. Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1116-1125, September.
    4. Berger, Charlie & Lavigne, Anne, 2007. "A model of the French pension reserve fund: what could be the optimal contribution path rate?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 233-250, November.
    5. Nicolas Ferrari & Falilou Fall, 2009. "Perspectives d’évolution des dépenses de retraite et rôle d’un fonds de réserve," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 187(1), pages 163-170.
    6. Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie & Alan Marcus, 1987. "Pension Plan Integration As Insurance Against Social Security Risk," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics, pages 147-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alan Krueger, 1999. "Measuring Labor's Share," Working Papers 792, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    8. Richard Hemming, 1999. "Should Public Pensions be Funded?," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 3-29.
    9. Bodie, Zvi & Shoven, John B. & Wise, David A. (ed.), 1987. "Issues in Pension Economics," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226062846, September.
    10. Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 1998. "Individual Risk and Intergenerational Risk Sharing in an Investment-Based Social Security Program," NBER Working Papers 6839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    2. Kyoji Fukao & Cristiano Perugini, 2021. "The Long‐Run Dynamics of the Labor Share in Japan," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(2), pages 445-480, June.
    3. Sequeira, Tiago & Morão, Hugo, 2020. "Growth accounting and regressions: New approach and results," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 67-79.
    4. Marta Guerriero, 2019. "The Labor Share of Income Around the World: Evidence from a Panel Dataset," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Gary Fields & Saumik Paul (ed.), Labor Income Share in Asia, chapter 0, pages 39-79, Springer.
    5. Freitas, Bruno, 2020. "Labour Share Heterogeneity and Fiscal Consolidation Programs," MPRA Paper 98973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Machin, Stephen & Bell, Brian & Bukowski, Pawel, 2018. "Rent Sharing and Inclusive Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 13408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Christopher Flinn & Ahu Gemici & Steven Laufer, 2017. "Search, Matching, and Training," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 25, pages 260-297, April.
    8. Alan L. Gustman & Olivia S. Mitchell & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1993. "The Role of Pensions in the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 4295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Barry T. Hirsch & Edward J. Schumacher, 2001. "Private Sector Union Density and the Wage Premium: Past, Present, and Future ," Journal of Labor Research, Transaction Publishers, vol. 22(3), pages 487-518, July.
    10. Baxamusa, Mufaddal & Jalal, Abu, 2023. "The decline in stock exchange listed firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 295-317.
    11. Eva Crespo-Cebada & Francisco Pedraja-Chaparro & Daniel Santín, 2014. "Does school ownership matter? An unbiased efficiency comparison for regions of Spain," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 153-172, February.
    12. Hernando Zuleta & antiago Alberico, 2007. "Labor supply, biased technological change and economic growth," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(53), pages 260-286, January.
    13. Bodie, Zvi, 1990. "Pensions as Retirement Income Insurance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 28-49, March.
    14. Akos Valentinyi & Berthold Herrendorf, 2008. "Measuring Factor Income Shares at the Sector Level," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 820-835, October.
    15. Rosés, Joan R., 2003. "Wages and labor income in history : a survey," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wh031006, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    16. Sattinger, Michael, 2001. "A Kaldor Matching Model of Real Wage Declines," IZA Discussion Papers 380, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia, 2014. "Management of Pension Funds: the Case of Portugal," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 4(4), pages 792-792.
    18. Marta Guerriero, 2019. "Democracy and the Labor Share of Income: A Cross-Country Analysis," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Gary Fields & Saumik Paul (ed.), Labor Income Share in Asia, chapter 0, pages 151-176, Springer.
    19. Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 765, European Central Bank.
    20. Yashiv, Eran, 2006. "Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 909-936, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2010_num_194_3_8049. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.