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Quel avenir pour le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites ?

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  • Rodrigue Mendez
  • Lionel Ragot

Abstract

[eng] We use a model based on the latest forecasts by the French Retirement Advisory Council (Conseil d’Orientation des Retraites : COR) at the moment when the study was carried out and a Bootstrap simulation of the rate of return on the financial portfolio of the French Pension Reserve Fund (Fonds de Réserve pour les Retraites : FRR). Our results indicate that the FRR will cover at most 24 % of the expected deficit in 2020 and 14.9 % in 2040. We also explore the benefits and risks of a multipillar pension system in which the FRR is turned into a permanent “ public pension fund ” (Fonds de Pension Public : FPP). The FPP contribution might raise the replacement rates substantially from 2050 on. However, the transition is long and risky owing to the significant probability of a lower replacement rate in the multipillar system in the first 30 years. [fre] À partir d’une maquette calée sur les dernières prévisions du Conseil d’orientation des retraites disponibles au moment de l’étude et d’une simulation de type Bootstrap des rendements du portefeuille d’actifs détenu par le Fonds de réserves des retraites (FRR), nous montrons que sa contribution couvrira tout au plus 24 % des besoins de financement des retraites en 2020 et 14,9 % en 2040. Nous explorons également les gains et les risques d’un système multipilier où le FRR s’est transformé en Fonds de pension public permanent (FPP). Le complément de retraite offert par ce FPP permettrait d’accroître sensiblement - à partir de 2050 - les taux de remplacements. Le risque que le système multipilier fasse moins bien que la répartition est très fort dans les 30 premières années et devient résiduel autour de 2060.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigue Mendez & Lionel Ragot, 2010. "Quel avenir pour le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 194(3), pages 57-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2010_num_194_3_8049
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2010.8049
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2010.8049
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