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Airline failure and distress prediction: a comparison of quantitative and qualitative models

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  • Vidar Gudmundsson, Sveinn

Abstract

In this paper, an exploratory study of failure and distress prediction models is presented based on a qualitative survey among new-entrant airline managers and a quantitative data source containing financial and traffic data of new-entrant airlines. Using logistic regression, it became evident that qualitative variables are a viable source for model construction. They contribute to a deeper understanding of the underlying distress and failure process. A number of significant predictor variables are discussed in the context of managing new-entrant airlines.

Suggested Citation

  • Vidar Gudmundsson, Sveinn, 1999. "Airline failure and distress prediction: a comparison of quantitative and qualitative models," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 155-182, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:35:y:1999:i:3:p:155-182
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsai, Dungchun & Chang, Shaochi & Chen, WeiWei & Tran, Chau-lan, 2008. "The market valuation of new route announcements," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 252-256.
    2. Kim, Soo Y. & Upneja, Arun, 2014. "Predicting restaurant financial distress using decision tree and AdaBoosted decision tree models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 354-362.
    3. Atanas Delev, 2016. "Issues and Challenges for Bankruptcy Risk Assessment in Bulgarian Companies," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 118-136.
    4. Catherine Refait-Alexandre, 2004. "A Review of Business Failure Prediction Based on Financial Analysis of the Firm [La prévision de la faillite fondée sur l'analyse financière de l'entreprise : un état des lieux]," Post-Print hal-01391654, HAL.
    5. Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi & Peyman Babashamsi & Datis Khajeheian & Nader Seyyed Amiri, 2016. "Airline Sustainability Modeling: A New Framework with Application of Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-17, November.
    6. Catherine Refait, 2004. "La prévision de la faillite fondée sur l’analyse financière de l’entreprise : un état des lieux," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 162(1), pages 129-147.
    7. Chen, Kee-Kuo & Ho, Hui-Ping & Chang, Ching-Ter, 2015. "Estimating attributes importance for container shipping industry by closing the listening gap with maximum convergent validity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 145-163.
    8. Pouget, Lilian & Ribeiro, Nuno Antunes & Odoni, Amedeo R. & Antunes, António Pais, 2023. "How do airlines react to slot displacements? Evidence from a major airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).

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